Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 15 16:54:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are likely today and tonight over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. ...MN/IA/WI... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of convectively generated vorticity maxima moving across the northern/central Plains, with the northernmost vorticity max over the eastern ND/SD border and the southernmost vorticity max over north-central NE. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted near these features over the last several hours, but the strongest cells in both of these clusters have recently shown a weakening trend. A moist and buoyant airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, exists downstream and redevelopment is possible ahead of both of these vorticity maxima. How that redevelopment evolves is uncertain, with recent guidance offering varied solutions regarding overall coverage and evolution. Redevelopment appears most probable with the southern vorticity maxima, given the ample moist and buoyancy that exists downstream. This development should grow upscale quickly, with the resulting convective cluster then tracking southeastward. Recent guidance continues to trend farther south, so the wind probabilities were extended southward to cover this potential. Damaging gusts appear like the most likely threat through the evening. Current progression of the northern vorticity maximum takes it into a less buoyant airmass across central MN and northern WI, and redevelopment along/ahead of this disturbance appears less likely. Depending on the strength of the IA cluster, additional development is possible in its wake amid a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over its outflow. Steep mid-level lapse rates should still be in place, supporting strong updrafts and large hail with these elevated storms. Lastly, a decaying convective line may reach the southwestern MN/northwestern IA vicinity late in the period. Given the potential for preceding storms, the amount of buoyancy that will still be in place remains is uncertain. However, if thunderstorm coverage is low or most storms develop farther east, enough buoyancy could remain to support strong updrafts capable of damaging gusts and/or hail within the convective line or any preceding more cellular storms. ..NE/SD this afternoon through tonight... Strong heating and ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered high-based thunderstorm development across eastern WY and western NE/SD by late afternoon. Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible with this initial activity. This activity will then track east-northeastward through the early evening into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass across NE and SD. The combination of improving thermodynamic environment and an intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will likely aid in thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth through the evening across northern NE and central SD. Guidance continues to vary significantly with the strength of this MCS, but general consensus would suggest the threat for strong to severe gusts will persist across SD tonight. There is at least a low probability for the development of a well-organized MCS that could produce significant severe gusts. However, that probability is currently too low to introduce an unconditional sig wind area. ...TX Coastal Plain into the Hill Country and Southeast TX... A maturing tropical disturbance is near south TX, with associated outflow currently spreading northward across the TX Coastal Plain. Limited lightning has been noted with in the short-lived cores that have been developing along this outflow. This process of brief intensification along this outflow is expected throughout the day, with an overall increase in thunderstorm coverage anticipated. A modest increase in low to mid-level flow is expected along the eastern periphery of this system, spreading northward into central and southeast TX. Even so, shear will remain weak, with a disorganized multicellular pulse storm mode anticipated. Given the very moist profiles (i.e. PW values over 2"), a few water-loaded downbursts are possible, but should be isolated enough to preclude the need for severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are likely today and tonight over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. ...MN/IA/WI... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of convectively generated vorticity maxima moving across the northern/central Plains, with the northernmost vorticity max over the eastern ND/SD border and the southernmost vorticity max over north-central NE. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted near these features over the last several hours, but the strongest cells in both of these clusters have recently shown a weakening trend. A moist and buoyant airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, exists downstream and redevelopment is possible ahead of both of these vorticity maxima. How that redevelopment evolves is uncertain, with recent guidance offering varied solutions regarding overall coverage and evolution. Redevelopment appears most probable with the southern vorticity maxima, given the ample moist and buoyancy that exists downstream. This development should grow upscale quickly, with the resulting convective cluster then tracking southeastward. Recent guidance continues to trend farther south, so the wind probabilities were extended southward to cover this potential. Damaging gusts appear like the most likely threat through the evening. Current progression of the northern vorticity maximum takes it into a less buoyant airmass across central MN and northern WI, and redevelopment along/ahead of this disturbance appears less likely. Depending on the strength of the IA cluster, additional development is possible in its wake amid a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over its outflow. Steep mid-level lapse rates should still be in place, supporting strong updrafts and large hail with these elevated storms. Lastly, a decaying convective line may reach the southwestern MN/northwestern IA vicinity late in the period. Given the potential for preceding storms, the amount of buoyancy that will still be in place remains is uncertain. However, if thunderstorm coverage is low or most storms develop farther east, enough buoyancy could remain to support strong updrafts capable of damaging gusts and/or hail within the convective line or any preceding more cellular storms. ..NE/SD this afternoon through tonight... Strong heating and ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered high-based thunderstorm development across eastern WY and western NE/SD by late afternoon. Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible with this initial activity. This activity will then track east-northeastward through the early evening into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass across NE and SD. The combination of improving thermodynamic environment and an intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will likely aid in thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth through the evening across northern NE and central SD. Guidance continues to vary significantly with the strength of this MCS, but general consensus would suggest the threat for strong to severe gusts will persist across SD tonight. There is at least a low probability for the development of a well-organized MCS that could produce significant severe gusts. However, that probability is currently too low to introduce an unconditional sig wind area. ...TX Coastal Plain into the Hill Country and Southeast TX... A maturing tropical disturbance is near south TX, with associated outflow currently spreading northward across the TX Coastal Plain. Limited lightning has been noted with in the short-lived cores that have been developing along this outflow. This process of brief intensification along this outflow is expected throughout the day, with an overall increase in thunderstorm coverage anticipated. A modest increase in low to mid-level flow is expected along the eastern periphery of this system, spreading northward into central and southeast TX. Even so, shear will remain weak, with a disorganized multicellular pulse storm mode anticipated. Given the very moist profiles (i.e. PW values over 2"), a few water-loaded downbursts are possible, but should be isolated enough to preclude the need for severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are likely today and tonight over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. ...MN/IA/WI... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of convectively generated vorticity maxima moving across the northern/central Plains, with the northernmost vorticity max over the eastern ND/SD border and the southernmost vorticity max over north-central NE. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted near these features over the last several hours, but the strongest cells in both of these clusters have recently shown a weakening trend. A moist and buoyant airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, exists downstream and redevelopment is possible ahead of both of these vorticity maxima. How that redevelopment evolves is uncertain, with recent guidance offering varied solutions regarding overall coverage and evolution. Redevelopment appears most probable with the southern vorticity maxima, given the ample moist and buoyancy that exists downstream. This development should grow upscale quickly, with the resulting convective cluster then tracking southeastward. Recent guidance continues to trend farther south, so the wind probabilities were extended southward to cover this potential. Damaging gusts appear like the most likely threat through the evening. Current progression of the northern vorticity maximum takes it into a less buoyant airmass across central MN and northern WI, and redevelopment along/ahead of this disturbance appears less likely. Depending on the strength of the IA cluster, additional development is possible in its wake amid a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over its outflow. Steep mid-level lapse rates should still be in place, supporting strong updrafts and large hail with these elevated storms. Lastly, a decaying convective line may reach the southwestern MN/northwestern IA vicinity late in the period. Given the potential for preceding storms, the amount of buoyancy that will still be in place remains is uncertain. However, if thunderstorm coverage is low or most storms develop farther east, enough buoyancy could remain to support strong updrafts capable of damaging gusts and/or hail within the convective line or any preceding more cellular storms. ..NE/SD this afternoon through tonight... Strong heating and ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered high-based thunderstorm development across eastern WY and western NE/SD by late afternoon. Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible with this initial activity. This activity will then track east-northeastward through the early evening into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass across NE and SD. The combination of improving thermodynamic environment and an intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will likely aid in thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth through the evening across northern NE and central SD. Guidance continues to vary significantly with the strength of this MCS, but general consensus would suggest the threat for strong to severe gusts will persist across SD tonight. There is at least a low probability for the development of a well-organized MCS that could produce significant severe gusts. However, that probability is currently too low to introduce an unconditional sig wind area. ...TX Coastal Plain into the Hill Country and Southeast TX... A maturing tropical disturbance is near south TX, with associated outflow currently spreading northward across the TX Coastal Plain. Limited lightning has been noted with in the short-lived cores that have been developing along this outflow. This process of brief intensification along this outflow is expected throughout the day, with an overall increase in thunderstorm coverage anticipated. A modest increase in low to mid-level flow is expected along the eastern periphery of this system, spreading northward into central and southeast TX. Even so, shear will remain weak, with a disorganized multicellular pulse storm mode anticipated. Given the very moist profiles (i.e. PW values over 2"), a few water-loaded downbursts are possible, but should be isolated enough to preclude the need for severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are likely today and tonight over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. ...MN/IA/WI... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of convectively generated vorticity maxima moving across the northern/central Plains, with the northernmost vorticity max over the eastern ND/SD border and the southernmost vorticity max over north-central NE. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted near these features over the last several hours, but the strongest cells in both of these clusters have recently shown a weakening trend. A moist and buoyant airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, exists downstream and redevelopment is possible ahead of both of these vorticity maxima. How that redevelopment evolves is uncertain, with recent guidance offering varied solutions regarding overall coverage and evolution. Redevelopment appears most probable with the southern vorticity maxima, given the ample moist and buoyancy that exists downstream. This development should grow upscale quickly, with the resulting convective cluster then tracking southeastward. Recent guidance continues to trend farther south, so the wind probabilities were extended southward to cover this potential. Damaging gusts appear like the most likely threat through the evening. Current progression of the northern vorticity maximum takes it into a less buoyant airmass across central MN and northern WI, and redevelopment along/ahead of this disturbance appears less likely. Depending on the strength of the IA cluster, additional development is possible in its wake amid a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over its outflow. Steep mid-level lapse rates should still be in place, supporting strong updrafts and large hail with these elevated storms. Lastly, a decaying convective line may reach the southwestern MN/northwestern IA vicinity late in the period. Given the potential for preceding storms, the amount of buoyancy that will still be in place remains is uncertain. However, if thunderstorm coverage is low or most storms develop farther east, enough buoyancy could remain to support strong updrafts capable of damaging gusts and/or hail within the convective line or any preceding more cellular storms. ..NE/SD this afternoon through tonight... Strong heating and ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered high-based thunderstorm development across eastern WY and western NE/SD by late afternoon. Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible with this initial activity. This activity will then track east-northeastward through the early evening into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass across NE and SD. The combination of improving thermodynamic environment and an intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will likely aid in thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth through the evening across northern NE and central SD. Guidance continues to vary significantly with the strength of this MCS, but general consensus would suggest the threat for strong to severe gusts will persist across SD tonight. There is at least a low probability for the development of a well-organized MCS that could produce significant severe gusts. However, that probability is currently too low to introduce an unconditional sig wind area. ...TX Coastal Plain into the Hill Country and Southeast TX... A maturing tropical disturbance is near south TX, with associated outflow currently spreading northward across the TX Coastal Plain. Limited lightning has been noted with in the short-lived cores that have been developing along this outflow. This process of brief intensification along this outflow is expected throughout the day, with an overall increase in thunderstorm coverage anticipated. A modest increase in low to mid-level flow is expected along the eastern periphery of this system, spreading northward into central and southeast TX. Even so, shear will remain weak, with a disorganized multicellular pulse storm mode anticipated. Given the very moist profiles (i.e. PW values over 2"), a few water-loaded downbursts are possible, but should be isolated enough to preclude the need for severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 08/15/2025 Read more