Severe Storms

MD 0201 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45... FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 151620Z - 151745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to intense tornadoes are likely through mid-afternoon across northern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Several mature, embedded supercells are starting to emerge out of the larger area of precipitation across northwest Mississippi with additional development possible from showers evident on radar across northeast Mississippi. One of these supercells, in Humphreys County, has had a persistent very strong mid-level mesocyclone and tops over 50kft. In addition, structural damage has been reported from this storm indicating the potential for a tornado. This supercell and any other mature supercells which develop are expected to persist east across the state through the early-to-mid afternoon. 0-1km SRH from the GWX VWP is around 350 m2/s2 and increasing. The instability is not as great across northern Mississippi where extensive cloud cover has muted daytime heating somewhat. However, there is still ample instability for maintenance of ongoing supercells. The combination of instability and shear has yielded STP values of 2 to 3 which should increase through the early afternoon as both shear and instability increase. The 15Z WoFs shows several moderate low-level rotation tracks across the northern part of the state over the next several hours which supports expectations based on the aforementioned observational data. Therefore, several strong to intense tornadoes are likely over the next 2 to 3 hours across northern Mississippi within PDS Tornado Watch 45. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32759097 33689042 34588951 34788871 34708831 33618834 33048886 32669037 32759097 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more