Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

MD 0205 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45...46... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi into northwestern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46... Valid 151816Z - 151945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes continues across northern MS into northwestern AL, particularly with a supercell in Montgomery County. Intense tornadoes (EF3+) are possible. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved into more discrete supercells, some of which have become dominant relative to other convective elements in the area. Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes, and a supercell in Montgomery County, MS has a persistent mesocyclone that continues to intensify per KDGX and KGWX NEXRAD data. The GWX VAD shows an impressively large and curved hodograph, with nearly 500 m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000 m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer. As such, the ambient environment supports intense tornadoes (EF3+). However, this is contingent on storms benefiting from minimal interference by other nearby storms, including the absorption of smaller storms. If one of the more dominant storms (especially the Montgomery County storm) can obtain a pristine inflow environment, the chance for intense tornado development is high. Damaging gusts are possible, especially with any linear segments that materialize. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33368995 33878950 34318904 34948780 34928698 34568670 33858716 33488837 33408862 33318894 33228937 33198963 33368995 Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MSL TO 25 N BNA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-055-061-081-087-099-101- 103-111-117-119-127-133-137-141-147-149-159-165-169-175-177-181- 185-187-189-152040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY HICKMAN JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL MAURY MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 0206 AND 0207. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-013-015-021-023-025-033-035-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095- 099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133- 152040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COLBERT CONECUH COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFT TO 30 ENE GWO TO 35 NNE TUP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 0206 AND 0207. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-063-091-093-095-103-105-117-152040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC005-007-013-017-019-023-025-029-031-035-051-057-061-065-067- 069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-117-121-123-127-129-141-147-155-159-152040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CALHOUN CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST HOLMES ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more