Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

MD 2001 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2001 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220457Z - 220730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail are possible tonight with the stronger elevated storms that develop. DISCUSSION...A few storms have shown some strengthening over the past couple of hours in eastern SD, with 40-50 dBZ echoes approaching 50 kft per MRMS mosaic radar data, which is also suggesting that hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter. Furthermore, a mid-level vortmax is ejecting from the northern High Plains and is rapidly approaching central SD, which will aid in the initiation of additional storms through tonight. The ambient environment is characterized by over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (originating from modestly curved hodographs). As such, any new storms that can develop and intensify later tonight may become elevated supercells capable of producing some severe hail. A severe gust or two also cannot be ruled out. However, the severe threat should be isolated overall, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44219679 43859780 43699891 43820249 43990317 44320357 44370365 45030358 45310326 45520030 45529953 45499826 45459759 45109689 44639658 44219679 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2002 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220505Z - 220730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail are possible tonight with the stronger elevated storms that develop. DISCUSSION...A few storms have shown some strengthening over the past couple of hours in eastern SD, with 40-50 dBZ echoes approaching 50 kft per MRMS mosaic radar data, which is also suggesting that hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter. Furthermore, a mid-level vortmax is ejecting from the northern High Plains and is rapidly approaching central SD, which will aid in the initiation of additional storms through tonight. The ambient environment is characterized by over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (originating from modestly curved hodographs). As such, any new storms that can develop and intensify later tonight may become elevated supercells capable of producing some severe hail. A severe gust or two also cannot be ruled out. However, the severe threat should be isolated overall, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44219679 43859780 43699891 43820249 43990317 44320357 44370365 45030358 45310326 45520030 45529953 45499826 45459759 45109689 44639658 44219679 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel ridge will remain in place across much of the West, while a well-established monsoonal moisture plume persists across the Southwest into the Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing amid the monsoonal moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad region extending from the Sierra into the Great Basin and central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V profiles, characterized by 0.70 to 0.90 inch PW, will favor a mix of wet/dry high-based storms -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds over dry/receptive fuels. ...North-central Oregon... Along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin, a modest offshore pressure gradient will develop across the Northwest. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds are expected amid 15-percent RH across north-central OR, with locally enhanced winds expected through the Columbia Gorge. Given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Coastal New England... On the far western fringes of Hurricane Erin, dry/breezy northerly winds atop receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions across coastal New England during the afternoon. ...Southern California... An unseasonably hot and unstable air mass along with critically dry fuels will continue to promote elevated fire-weather conditions away from the coast in southern CA, despite only modest surface winds. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms will pose a localized risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic winds away from any heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel ridge will remain in place across much of the West, while a well-established monsoonal moisture plume persists across the Southwest into the Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing amid the monsoonal moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad region extending from the Sierra into the Great Basin and central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V profiles, characterized by 0.70 to 0.90 inch PW, will favor a mix of wet/dry high-based storms -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds over dry/receptive fuels. ...North-central Oregon... Along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin, a modest offshore pressure gradient will develop across the Northwest. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds are expected amid 15-percent RH across north-central OR, with locally enhanced winds expected through the Columbia Gorge. Given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Coastal New England... On the far western fringes of Hurricane Erin, dry/breezy northerly winds atop receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions across coastal New England during the afternoon. ...Southern California... An unseasonably hot and unstable air mass along with critically dry fuels will continue to promote elevated fire-weather conditions away from the coast in southern CA, despite only modest surface winds. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms will pose a localized risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic winds away from any heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel ridge will remain in place across much of the West, while a well-established monsoonal moisture plume persists across the Southwest into the Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing amid the monsoonal moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad region extending from the Sierra into the Great Basin and central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V profiles, characterized by 0.70 to 0.90 inch PW, will favor a mix of wet/dry high-based storms -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds over dry/receptive fuels. ...North-central Oregon... Along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin, a modest offshore pressure gradient will develop across the Northwest. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds are expected amid 15-percent RH across north-central OR, with locally enhanced winds expected through the Columbia Gorge. Given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Coastal New England... On the far western fringes of Hurricane Erin, dry/breezy northerly winds atop receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions across coastal New England during the afternoon. ...Southern California... An unseasonably hot and unstable air mass along with critically dry fuels will continue to promote elevated fire-weather conditions away from the coast in southern CA, despite only modest surface winds. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms will pose a localized risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic winds away from any heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel ridge will remain in place across much of the West, while a well-established monsoonal moisture plume persists across the Southwest into the Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing amid the monsoonal moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad region extending from the Sierra into the Great Basin and central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V profiles, characterized by 0.70 to 0.90 inch PW, will favor a mix of wet/dry high-based storms -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds over dry/receptive fuels. ...North-central Oregon... Along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin, a modest offshore pressure gradient will develop across the Northwest. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds are expected amid 15-percent RH across north-central OR, with locally enhanced winds expected through the Columbia Gorge. Given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Coastal New England... On the far western fringes of Hurricane Erin, dry/breezy northerly winds atop receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions across coastal New England during the afternoon. ...Southern California... An unseasonably hot and unstable air mass along with critically dry fuels will continue to promote elevated fire-weather conditions away from the coast in southern CA, despite only modest surface winds. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms will pose a localized risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic winds away from any heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel ridge will remain in place across much of the West, while a well-established monsoonal moisture plume persists across the Southwest into the Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing amid the monsoonal moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad region extending from the Sierra into the Great Basin and central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V profiles, characterized by 0.70 to 0.90 inch PW, will favor a mix of wet/dry high-based storms -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds over dry/receptive fuels. ...North-central Oregon... Along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin, a modest offshore pressure gradient will develop across the Northwest. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds are expected amid 15-percent RH across north-central OR, with locally enhanced winds expected through the Columbia Gorge. Given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Coastal New England... On the far western fringes of Hurricane Erin, dry/breezy northerly winds atop receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions across coastal New England during the afternoon. ...Southern California... An unseasonably hot and unstable air mass along with critically dry fuels will continue to promote elevated fire-weather conditions away from the coast in southern CA, despite only modest surface winds. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms will pose a localized risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic winds away from any heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel ridge will remain in place across much of the West, while a well-established monsoonal moisture plume persists across the Southwest into the Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing amid the monsoonal moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad region extending from the Sierra into the Great Basin and central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V profiles, characterized by 0.70 to 0.90 inch PW, will favor a mix of wet/dry high-based storms -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds over dry/receptive fuels. ...North-central Oregon... Along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin, a modest offshore pressure gradient will develop across the Northwest. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds are expected amid 15-percent RH across north-central OR, with locally enhanced winds expected through the Columbia Gorge. Given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Coastal New England... On the far western fringes of Hurricane Erin, dry/breezy northerly winds atop receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions across coastal New England during the afternoon. ...Southern California... An unseasonably hot and unstable air mass along with critically dry fuels will continue to promote elevated fire-weather conditions away from the coast in southern CA, despite only modest surface winds. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms will pose a localized risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic winds away from any heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more