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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the Texas Coast northeastward into parts of the far southern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Monday as southwest flow remains in place over much of the western and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the system, thunderstorm development is expected over the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. As this belt of stronger low-level flow shifts northeastward toward the coast of Louisiana Monday night, thunderstorm development is expected over parts of far southern Louisiana. The higher surface dewpoints and any resultant instability, is forecast to remain offshore, which will likely limit any severe potential. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into northern Mexico from Sunday into Sunday night, as flow remains from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the system, allowing surface dewpoints to increase into the lower to mid 60s across the lower to middle Texas coast. As flow increases at low-levels during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, and along and near the lower to middle Texas Coast. No severe threat is expected with this convection, and thunderstorms are not forecast elsewhere Sunday and Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more