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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is advancing toward the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This low-latitude feature will approach the FL Gulf Coast toward sunrise but will also gradually weaken as it translates east. While the primary surface low will lag considerably over the northwest Gulf, deep easterly flow into the FL Peninsula continues to favor scattered showers. Moist profiles and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a few deeper updrafts capable of generating a few flashes of lightning later tonight. Even so, this activity should remain quite sparse. Scattered lake-enhanced convection is producing lightning as it approaches the southeast coast of Lake Ontario between Oswego and Sodus Point NY. While a few flashes of lightning may advance 50-60 mi downstream of the lake, the primary concentration of lightning should hold over/near the warmer waters. ..Darrow.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is advancing toward the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This low-latitude feature will approach the FL Gulf Coast toward sunrise but will also gradually weaken as it translates east. While the primary surface low will lag considerably over the northwest Gulf, deep easterly flow into the FL Peninsula continues to favor scattered showers. Moist profiles and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a few deeper updrafts capable of generating a few flashes of lightning later tonight. Even so, this activity should remain quite sparse. Scattered lake-enhanced convection is producing lightning as it approaches the southeast coast of Lake Ontario between Oswego and Sodus Point NY. While a few flashes of lightning may advance 50-60 mi downstream of the lake, the primary concentration of lightning should hold over/near the warmer waters. ..Darrow.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is advancing toward the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This low-latitude feature will approach the FL Gulf Coast toward sunrise but will also gradually weaken as it translates east. While the primary surface low will lag considerably over the northwest Gulf, deep easterly flow into the FL Peninsula continues to favor scattered showers. Moist profiles and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a few deeper updrafts capable of generating a few flashes of lightning later tonight. Even so, this activity should remain quite sparse. Scattered lake-enhanced convection is producing lightning as it approaches the southeast coast of Lake Ontario between Oswego and Sodus Point NY. While a few flashes of lightning may advance 50-60 mi downstream of the lake, the primary concentration of lightning should hold over/near the warmer waters. ..Darrow.. 11/14/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 13 22:04:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 13 22:04:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A lee trough will likely be in place along the northern to central High Plains at the start of the period, and is forecast to migrate east through the day in tandem with a passing upper-level impulse along the U.S./Canada border. A dry air mass will likely overspread the central Plains ahead of the trough, but winds should remain modest given a slow reduction of the regional pressure gradient through the afternoon. Breezy downslope winds may persist across eastern WY during the morning hours, but should slowly diminish through late afternoon as the trough shifts east. While an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions appears probable during the early afternoon hours, the offset of peak winds from diurnal RH minimums limits confidence in the overall duration of fire weather conditions. This idea is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows the best signal for elevated conditions across southeast WY for a couple of hours early Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A lee trough will likely be in place along the northern to central High Plains at the start of the period, and is forecast to migrate east through the day in tandem with a passing upper-level impulse along the U.S./Canada border. A dry air mass will likely overspread the central Plains ahead of the trough, but winds should remain modest given a slow reduction of the regional pressure gradient through the afternoon. Breezy downslope winds may persist across eastern WY during the morning hours, but should slowly diminish through late afternoon as the trough shifts east. While an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions appears probable during the early afternoon hours, the offset of peak winds from diurnal RH minimums limits confidence in the overall duration of fire weather conditions. This idea is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows the best signal for elevated conditions across southeast WY for a couple of hours early Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more