SPC Nov 14, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Friday to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, an area of high pressure associated with a relatively dry airmass, is forecast to move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This will likely minimize the potential for thunderstorms over much of the continental U.S from Friday into Saturday. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Moisture advection will likely increase surface dewpoints across parts of southern and central Texas into the 60s F. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of the southern Plains on Sunday, instability is forecast to remain weak. An isolated severe threat could develop during the afternoon and evening, but any threat will likely remain marginal due to a lack of instability. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the southern Plains, as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet is expected to move from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Medium-range model forecasts suggest that convection will be likely ahead of the trough from central and east Texas into Louisiana Monday afternoon and evening. Although deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be sufficient for severe storms, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the system. While an isolated severe threat will be possible Monday afternoon and evening in parts of Texas and Louisiana, model solutions suggest that the quality of the airmass ahead of the system will remain poor. At this time, there is considerable uncertainty concerning a potential severe threat. On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move across the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening. However, instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any severe threat that develops. Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across southeast WY and across the central Plains. Early-morning surface observations show a lee trough in place along the High Plains with southerly return flow ongoing through the southern to central Plains. This trough will migrate east into the central Plains through the day, maintain 15-25 mph southerly winds from KS into southwest MN. Although warm and breezy conditions are expected, returning moisture should limit RH reductions this afternoon. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with low probabilities for RH below 20%, even with a notable dry bias in some guidance (such as the HRRR/RAP). However, patchy areas of elevated conditions are possible across the Plains where RH can fall below 25%. Across southeast WY, 15-25 mph westerly downslope flow is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours, slowly abating through the mid/late afternoon as the surface trough exits the region. This timing of peak winds should be offset from the diurnal RH minimum, but a few hours of elevated conditions are possible around midday. The potentially limited duration of this threat precludes highlights, but trends will be monitored through the morning for lower than expected RH within the downslope flow regime. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across southeast WY and across the central Plains. Early-morning surface observations show a lee trough in place along the High Plains with southerly return flow ongoing through the southern to central Plains. This trough will migrate east into the central Plains through the day, maintain 15-25 mph southerly winds from KS into southwest MN. Although warm and breezy conditions are expected, returning moisture should limit RH reductions this afternoon. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with low probabilities for RH below 20%, even with a notable dry bias in some guidance (such as the HRRR/RAP). However, patchy areas of elevated conditions are possible across the Plains where RH can fall below 25%. Across southeast WY, 15-25 mph westerly downslope flow is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours, slowly abating through the mid/late afternoon as the surface trough exits the region. This timing of peak winds should be offset from the diurnal RH minimum, but a few hours of elevated conditions are possible around midday. The potentially limited duration of this threat precludes highlights, but trends will be monitored through the morning for lower than expected RH within the downslope flow regime. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across southeast WY and across the central Plains. Early-morning surface observations show a lee trough in place along the High Plains with southerly return flow ongoing through the southern to central Plains. This trough will migrate east into the central Plains through the day, maintain 15-25 mph southerly winds from KS into southwest MN. Although warm and breezy conditions are expected, returning moisture should limit RH reductions this afternoon. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with low probabilities for RH below 20%, even with a notable dry bias in some guidance (such as the HRRR/RAP). However, patchy areas of elevated conditions are possible across the Plains where RH can fall below 25%. Across southeast WY, 15-25 mph westerly downslope flow is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours, slowly abating through the mid/late afternoon as the surface trough exits the region. This timing of peak winds should be offset from the diurnal RH minimum, but a few hours of elevated conditions are possible around midday. The potentially limited duration of this threat precludes highlights, but trends will be monitored through the morning for lower than expected RH within the downslope flow regime. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across southeast WY and across the central Plains. Early-morning surface observations show a lee trough in place along the High Plains with southerly return flow ongoing through the southern to central Plains. This trough will migrate east into the central Plains through the day, maintain 15-25 mph southerly winds from KS into southwest MN. Although warm and breezy conditions are expected, returning moisture should limit RH reductions this afternoon. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with low probabilities for RH below 20%, even with a notable dry bias in some guidance (such as the HRRR/RAP). However, patchy areas of elevated conditions are possible across the Plains where RH can fall below 25%. Across southeast WY, 15-25 mph westerly downslope flow is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours, slowly abating through the mid/late afternoon as the surface trough exits the region. This timing of peak winds should be offset from the diurnal RH minimum, but a few hours of elevated conditions are possible around midday. The potentially limited duration of this threat precludes highlights, but trends will be monitored through the morning for lower than expected RH within the downslope flow regime. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across southeast WY and across the central Plains. Early-morning surface observations show a lee trough in place along the High Plains with southerly return flow ongoing through the southern to central Plains. This trough will migrate east into the central Plains through the day, maintain 15-25 mph southerly winds from KS into southwest MN. Although warm and breezy conditions are expected, returning moisture should limit RH reductions this afternoon. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with low probabilities for RH below 20%, even with a notable dry bias in some guidance (such as the HRRR/RAP). However, patchy areas of elevated conditions are possible across the Plains where RH can fall below 25%. Across southeast WY, 15-25 mph westerly downslope flow is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours, slowly abating through the mid/late afternoon as the surface trough exits the region. This timing of peak winds should be offset from the diurnal RH minimum, but a few hours of elevated conditions are possible around midday. The potentially limited duration of this threat precludes highlights, but trends will be monitored through the morning for lower than expected RH within the downslope flow regime. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 14, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more