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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern Florida. ...Synopsis... Isolated lightning flashes are possible near and offshore from the central Gulf Coast, as well as across south FL this evening into tonight. This activity may increase over the next several hours as a surface low and upper trough develop eastward into Wednesday morning, fostering continued warm advection and some forcing for ascent. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern Florida. ...Synopsis... Isolated lightning flashes are possible near and offshore from the central Gulf Coast, as well as across south FL this evening into tonight. This activity may increase over the next several hours as a surface low and upper trough develop eastward into Wednesday morning, fostering continued warm advection and some forcing for ascent. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern Florida. ...Synopsis... Isolated lightning flashes are possible near and offshore from the central Gulf Coast, as well as across south FL this evening into tonight. This activity may increase over the next several hours as a surface low and upper trough develop eastward into Wednesday morning, fostering continued warm advection and some forcing for ascent. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 14 21:50:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 14 21:50:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. The pattern will consist of an upper-level ridge across the central US and a trough deepening within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western through D5 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions on D3 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. The central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north D4 - Friday through the weekend. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. The pattern will consist of an upper-level ridge across the central US and a trough deepening within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western through D5 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions on D3 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. The central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north D4 - Friday through the weekend. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. The pattern will consist of an upper-level ridge across the central US and a trough deepening within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western through D5 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions on D3 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. The central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north D4 - Friday through the weekend. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. The pattern will consist of an upper-level ridge across the central US and a trough deepening within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western through D5 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions on D3 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. The central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north D4 - Friday through the weekend. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more