Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out across portions of the Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread much of the northern CONUS today as a pronounced upper-level trough impinges on the western U.S. and a more subtle mid-level shortwave overspreads the southern FL Peninsula. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will remain in place across most of the Interior West to the East Coast, suppressing thunderstorm potential. However, some thunderstorm potential exists across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin in advance of the approaching mid-level trough. Thunderstorms should continue to develop through the period ahead of a meandering surface low along the Gulf coastal waters, with thunderstorm potential extending into the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida... Marginal buoyancy, in the form of tall/thin CAPE, remains in place across the FL keys, and is mainly driven by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Through the day, the approach of the subtle mid-level trough will encourage a low-level mass response in the form of strengthening east-southeasterly 850 mb winds, which will support modestly curved hodographs. As such, any of the storms that can remain sustained within this zone of marginal instability may pose a brief tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out across portions of the Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread much of the northern CONUS today as a pronounced upper-level trough impinges on the western U.S. and a more subtle mid-level shortwave overspreads the southern FL Peninsula. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will remain in place across most of the Interior West to the East Coast, suppressing thunderstorm potential. However, some thunderstorm potential exists across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin in advance of the approaching mid-level trough. Thunderstorms should continue to develop through the period ahead of a meandering surface low along the Gulf coastal waters, with thunderstorm potential extending into the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida... Marginal buoyancy, in the form of tall/thin CAPE, remains in place across the FL keys, and is mainly driven by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Through the day, the approach of the subtle mid-level trough will encourage a low-level mass response in the form of strengthening east-southeasterly 850 mb winds, which will support modestly curved hodographs. As such, any of the storms that can remain sustained within this zone of marginal instability may pose a brief tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

MD 2269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151751Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado/waterspout is possible over the Florida Keys over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over the past few hours around the FL Keys, some of which have shown occasional instances of transient low-level rotation. Mid-level lapse rates remain poor over the region. However, the combination of surface heating amid mid 70s F surface dewpoints should support 500-1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE through the afternoon. Coinciding the buoyancy axis should be increasing 850 mb flow, which would support modestly curved low-level hodographs. As such, the stronger, more persistent thunderstorms should continue to exhibit at least brief periods of low-level rotation and a tornado (or tornadic waterspout) remains possible around the FL Keys through the afternoon hours. The tornado threat however is quite sparse, so a Tornado Watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24518228 24678194 25028114 25218054 25158027 24908019 24588039 24378086 24348145 24358194 24518228 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm risk is forecast across the continental United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A residual mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL Peninsula will slowly drift east through late Thursday night. A weakening surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be superceded by a developing low in between the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas. A few widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula during day, but appreciable cloudiness and/or meager lapse rates will limit thunderstorm coverage. Elsewhere, a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will feature a few weak disturbances rotating cyclonically through the base of the larger-scale trough. A couple of lightning flashes are possible with weak convection near the coast of central CA and perhaps over the Sonoran Desert. Farther east, a surface cold front will sweep southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes/Ozarks. Thunderstorms are not expected with the front. ..Smith.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out across portions of the Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread much of the northern CONUS today as a pronounced upper-level trough impinges on the western U.S. and a more subtle mid-level shortwave overspreads the southern FL Peninsula. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will remain in place across most of the Interior West to the East Coast, suppressing thunderstorm potential. However, some thunderstorm potential exists across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin in advance of the approaching mid-level trough. Thunderstorms should continue to develop through the period ahead of a meandering surface low along the Gulf coastal waters, with thunderstorm potential extending into the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida... Marginal buoyancy, in the form of tall/thin CAPE, remains in place across the FL keys, and is mainly driven by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Through the day, the approach of the subtle mid-level trough will encourage a low-level mass response in the form of strengthening east-southeasterly 850 mb winds, which will support modestly curved hodographs. As such, any of the storms that can remain sustained within this zone of marginal instability may pose a brief tornado risk this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2023 Read more