Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low threat of a brief/weak tornado exists for a small part of far southern Florida. ...Extreme southern FL toward the Upper Keys... Clusters of thunderstorms may linger this evening over the far southern FL Peninsula and Upper Keys, where dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s F. Low-level shear will also remain favorable for rotation, with the greatest relative risk immediately along and coast and over the water where low-level lapse rates will remain more favorable. Available 00Z soundings show limited instability, especially for surface-based parcels. As such, any weak/brief tornado risk appears low over land. ..Jewell.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low threat of a brief/weak tornado exists for a small part of far southern Florida. ...Extreme southern FL toward the Upper Keys... Clusters of thunderstorms may linger this evening over the far southern FL Peninsula and Upper Keys, where dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s F. Low-level shear will also remain favorable for rotation, with the greatest relative risk immediately along and coast and over the water where low-level lapse rates will remain more favorable. Available 00Z soundings show limited instability, especially for surface-based parcels. As such, any weak/brief tornado risk appears low over land. ..Jewell.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low threat of a brief/weak tornado exists for a small part of far southern Florida. ...Extreme southern FL toward the Upper Keys... Clusters of thunderstorms may linger this evening over the far southern FL Peninsula and Upper Keys, where dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s F. Low-level shear will also remain favorable for rotation, with the greatest relative risk immediately along and coast and over the water where low-level lapse rates will remain more favorable. Available 00Z soundings show limited instability, especially for surface-based parcels. As such, any weak/brief tornado risk appears low over land. ..Jewell.. 11/16/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 15 23:31:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 15 23:31:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A persistent ridge across the Central US will lose amplitude as a wave shifts across the northern periphery of the ridge through the northern Plains from D2-Thursday into D3-Friday. A cold front traverses the Great Plains late D2 - Thursday into D3 - Friday. Gusty post frontal northwesterly flow and drying conditions will be likely, but cooler temperatures will keep relative humidity above thresholds of concern. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D6 - Monday. Model trends continue to indicate lee cyclogenesis resulting in increased south to southwest flow across the central and southern Plains. This may bring potential for Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains, but also potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist. Confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. Trends will be monitored with areas introduced in future outlooks as needed. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A persistent ridge across the Central US will lose amplitude as a wave shifts across the northern periphery of the ridge through the northern Plains from D2-Thursday into D3-Friday. A cold front traverses the Great Plains late D2 - Thursday into D3 - Friday. Gusty post frontal northwesterly flow and drying conditions will be likely, but cooler temperatures will keep relative humidity above thresholds of concern. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D6 - Monday. Model trends continue to indicate lee cyclogenesis resulting in increased south to southwest flow across the central and southern Plains. This may bring potential for Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains, but also potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist. Confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. Trends will be monitored with areas introduced in future outlooks as needed. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A persistent ridge across the Central US will lose amplitude as a wave shifts across the northern periphery of the ridge through the northern Plains from D2-Thursday into D3-Friday. A cold front traverses the Great Plains late D2 - Thursday into D3 - Friday. Gusty post frontal northwesterly flow and drying conditions will be likely, but cooler temperatures will keep relative humidity above thresholds of concern. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D6 - Monday. Model trends continue to indicate lee cyclogenesis resulting in increased south to southwest flow across the central and southern Plains. This may bring potential for Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains, but also potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist. Confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. Trends will be monitored with areas introduced in future outlooks as needed. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A persistent ridge across the Central US will lose amplitude as a wave shifts across the northern periphery of the ridge through the northern Plains from D2-Thursday into D3-Friday. A cold front traverses the Great Plains late D2 - Thursday into D3 - Friday. Gusty post frontal northwesterly flow and drying conditions will be likely, but cooler temperatures will keep relative humidity above thresholds of concern. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D6 - Monday. Model trends continue to indicate lee cyclogenesis resulting in increased south to southwest flow across the central and southern Plains. This may bring potential for Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains, but also potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist. Confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. Trends will be monitored with areas introduced in future outlooks as needed. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Areas affected...the Florida Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152102Z - 152330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado/tornadic waterspout threat continues across the Florida Keys area. Given the sparse and spatially confined nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms, with several showing brief bouts of low-level rotation, continue along and just south of the FL Keys in proximity to a quasi-stationary surface boundary. To the southwest of Key West, a small bow-echo signature continues to surge quickly to the southeast with strong gust potential, and may overturn the airmass/reduce instability along its way. Ahead of this bow-echo feature, an MCV has materialized along and just north of the aforementioned surface boundary and is likely benefiting from locally stronger low-level shear. Semi-discrete cells within and ahead of this MCV may encounter locally backed low-level winds/enlarged hodographs, and an isolated supercellular/tornadic waterspout remains possible with any of the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24458230 24958151 25228075 25427983 25307945 24877935 24417951 24108018 23998159 24028170 24458230 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be limited for Thursday across the country. Latest guidance continues to depict the passage of a cold front across the Plains through the day. Post-frontal winds are forecast to gust to 25-35 mph, but cooling temperatures behind the front should limit RH reductions and the potential for prolonged fire weather conditions. Westerly downslope flow ahead of the front along the Front Range may support localized elevated fire weather conditions with winds gusting to 20 mph and RH falling into the low 20s. Such conditions appear most likely from central CO to northern NM, but are expected to remain fairly localized and transient. Dry conditions will persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic with RH minimums in the 20-30% range, but weak winds will mitigate more robust fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more