Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more