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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Showers over part of FL have produced little lightning over the last several hours, with relatively poor lapse rates with moist profiles. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as activity with access to unstable air concentrates over the east-central Peninsula. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may persist over far southern AZ as the midlevel moist plume results in elevated instability beneath cool air aloft. This activity may tend to wane this evening. ..Jewell.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Showers over part of FL have produced little lightning over the last several hours, with relatively poor lapse rates with moist profiles. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as activity with access to unstable air concentrates over the east-central Peninsula. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may persist over far southern AZ as the midlevel moist plume results in elevated instability beneath cool air aloft. This activity may tend to wane this evening. ..Jewell.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Showers over part of FL have produced little lightning over the last several hours, with relatively poor lapse rates with moist profiles. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as activity with access to unstable air concentrates over the east-central Peninsula. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may persist over far southern AZ as the midlevel moist plume results in elevated instability beneath cool air aloft. This activity may tend to wane this evening. ..Jewell.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A cold front will continue southward across the southern Plains late D2 - Friday. Southerly return flow will on D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday will gradually pull moisture northward beneath a quick moving upper ridge. A Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D4 - Sunday. The resulting increased south to southwest flow across the Plains may bring potential for spotty Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains. Given potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist, confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A cold front will continue southward across the southern Plains late D2 - Friday. Southerly return flow will on D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday will gradually pull moisture northward beneath a quick moving upper ridge. A Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D4 - Sunday. The resulting increased south to southwest flow across the Plains may bring potential for spotty Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains. Given potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist, confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A cold front will continue southward across the southern Plains late D2 - Friday. Southerly return flow will on D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday will gradually pull moisture northward beneath a quick moving upper ridge. A Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D4 - Sunday. The resulting increased south to southwest flow across the Plains may bring potential for spotty Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains. Given potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist, confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 16 21:58:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 16 21:58:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more