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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, large-scale troughing will prevail over eastern North America through the period. Associated cyclonic flow will be traversed by several shortwaves, including one evident in moisture- channel imagery from Lake Superior to eastern Kansas. The northern part of this perturbation will move southeastward to the lower Great Lakes, lower Ohio Valley and Ozarks by 00Z, then split, with the northern part being absorbed into a trailing perturbation now over the eastern Dakotas. The southern part should extend from western NC to central MS by 12Z. An associated surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from Lake Huron and southern Lower MI across central parts of IL/MO to southwestern OK and northwest TX -- will move southeastward by 00Z to northern NY, western PA, eastern parts of KY/TN, southern MS, central/southern LA, and southeast TX. Low-level moisture is very limited in the prefrontal return flow, which consists of mostly recycled continental/polar air behind a prior front. Still, low- density MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg -- sometimes extending into icing layers suitable for lightning -- may support sporadic thunder within a near-frontal precip belt over parts of the Ohio Valley to southern Appalachians. Elsewhere, a southern-stream shortwave trough and associated low/ middle-level cyclone were evident over the coastal east-central FL vicinity. These will support isolated thunder potential today over parts of FL, then tonight in the NC Outer Banks area as the low-level circulation moves/redevelops northeastward to the east of the Carolinas. In the West, an initially cut-off cyclone centered near 35N132W will devolve to a progressive, open-wave trough by this evening, as heights fall to its northwest from a strongly progressive shortwave over the northeastern Pacific. The lead trough will move ashore over CA near the end of the period. Cooling/destabilization aloft will support episodic belts of convection -- including some thunderstorms, across parts of north-central to coastal southern CA today and tonight. Small hail and strong gusts may occur, but organized severe is not expected. Diurnal heating may yield MLCAPE up to about 500 J/kg, but with the trough still well offshore this afternoon, deep shear and low-level hodographs still should be limited. Colder air aloft, in the zone of strongest DCVA preceding the trough, will support showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Strengthening lift with low-level warm advection and collocated southwesterly moisture transport should support increasing precip late tonight over parts of AZ, including isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. In the low-level source area, surface dewpoints already are in the 60s F from portions of south-central AZ across western Sonora, central parts of Baja and intervening waters. ..Edwards.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, large-scale troughing will prevail over eastern North America through the period. Associated cyclonic flow will be traversed by several shortwaves, including one evident in moisture- channel imagery from Lake Superior to eastern Kansas. The northern part of this perturbation will move southeastward to the lower Great Lakes, lower Ohio Valley and Ozarks by 00Z, then split, with the northern part being absorbed into a trailing perturbation now over the eastern Dakotas. The southern part should extend from western NC to central MS by 12Z. An associated surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from Lake Huron and southern Lower MI across central parts of IL/MO to southwestern OK and northwest TX -- will move southeastward by 00Z to northern NY, western PA, eastern parts of KY/TN, southern MS, central/southern LA, and southeast TX. Low-level moisture is very limited in the prefrontal return flow, which consists of mostly recycled continental/polar air behind a prior front. Still, low- density MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg -- sometimes extending into icing layers suitable for lightning -- may support sporadic thunder within a near-frontal precip belt over parts of the Ohio Valley to southern Appalachians. Elsewhere, a southern-stream shortwave trough and associated low/ middle-level cyclone were evident over the coastal east-central FL vicinity. These will support isolated thunder potential today over parts of FL, then tonight in the NC Outer Banks area as the low-level circulation moves/redevelops northeastward to the east of the Carolinas. In the West, an initially cut-off cyclone centered near 35N132W will devolve to a progressive, open-wave trough by this evening, as heights fall to its northwest from a strongly progressive shortwave over the northeastern Pacific. The lead trough will move ashore over CA near the end of the period. Cooling/destabilization aloft will support episodic belts of convection -- including some thunderstorms, across parts of north-central to coastal southern CA today and tonight. Small hail and strong gusts may occur, but organized severe is not expected. Diurnal heating may yield MLCAPE up to about 500 J/kg, but with the trough still well offshore this afternoon, deep shear and low-level hodographs still should be limited. Colder air aloft, in the zone of strongest DCVA preceding the trough, will support showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Strengthening lift with low-level warm advection and collocated southwesterly moisture transport should support increasing precip late tonight over parts of AZ, including isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. In the low-level source area, surface dewpoints already are in the 60s F from portions of south-central AZ across western Sonora, central parts of Baja and intervening waters. ..Edwards.. 11/17/2023 Read more