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No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 17 21:57:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 17 21:57:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Southwest late this weekend and continue eastward through the Southeast. While ridging aloft will quickly build in the West behind this features, another trough is forecast to take a similar path mid/late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains early next week with another expected as the second trough moves eastward late next week into the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... With the approach of the trough this weekend, areas of dry and breezy conditions will be possible. Precipitation associated with the trough will occur within parts of the region, but some areas may not receive much rainfall. At present, the driest conditions appear most likely from the Trans-Pecos into the South Plains. Additional dry and windy conditions are possible toward the end of next week with the next trough forecast to move into the region. Given the potential for precipitation and the cooler temperatures behind the initial cold front, the threat of critical fire weather remains low at this time. ...Southern California... Model guidance continues to suggest potential for strong northerly/northeasterly wind even late Sunday into Monday afternoon. Given the upper-level wind support along the western flank of the trough, strong wind gusts will be likely, particularly within the terrain. Even with dry and windy conditions, current fuel information, in addition to the rain expected to occur into this Saturday, suggests fire weather risk with this event does not appear to be high. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Southwest late this weekend and continue eastward through the Southeast. While ridging aloft will quickly build in the West behind this features, another trough is forecast to take a similar path mid/late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains early next week with another expected as the second trough moves eastward late next week into the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... With the approach of the trough this weekend, areas of dry and breezy conditions will be possible. Precipitation associated with the trough will occur within parts of the region, but some areas may not receive much rainfall. At present, the driest conditions appear most likely from the Trans-Pecos into the South Plains. Additional dry and windy conditions are possible toward the end of next week with the next trough forecast to move into the region. Given the potential for precipitation and the cooler temperatures behind the initial cold front, the threat of critical fire weather remains low at this time. ...Southern California... Model guidance continues to suggest potential for strong northerly/northeasterly wind even late Sunday into Monday afternoon. Given the upper-level wind support along the western flank of the trough, strong wind gusts will be likely, particularly within the terrain. Even with dry and windy conditions, current fuel information, in addition to the rain expected to occur into this Saturday, suggests fire weather risk with this event does not appear to be high. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Southwest late this weekend and continue eastward through the Southeast. While ridging aloft will quickly build in the West behind this features, another trough is forecast to take a similar path mid/late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains early next week with another expected as the second trough moves eastward late next week into the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... With the approach of the trough this weekend, areas of dry and breezy conditions will be possible. Precipitation associated with the trough will occur within parts of the region, but some areas may not receive much rainfall. At present, the driest conditions appear most likely from the Trans-Pecos into the South Plains. Additional dry and windy conditions are possible toward the end of next week with the next trough forecast to move into the region. Given the potential for precipitation and the cooler temperatures behind the initial cold front, the threat of critical fire weather remains low at this time. ...Southern California... Model guidance continues to suggest potential for strong northerly/northeasterly wind even late Sunday into Monday afternoon. Given the upper-level wind support along the western flank of the trough, strong wind gusts will be likely, particularly within the terrain. Even with dry and windy conditions, current fuel information, in addition to the rain expected to occur into this Saturday, suggests fire weather risk with this event does not appear to be high. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Southwest late this weekend and continue eastward through the Southeast. While ridging aloft will quickly build in the West behind this features, another trough is forecast to take a similar path mid/late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains early next week with another expected as the second trough moves eastward late next week into the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... With the approach of the trough this weekend, areas of dry and breezy conditions will be possible. Precipitation associated with the trough will occur within parts of the region, but some areas may not receive much rainfall. At present, the driest conditions appear most likely from the Trans-Pecos into the South Plains. Additional dry and windy conditions are possible toward the end of next week with the next trough forecast to move into the region. Given the potential for precipitation and the cooler temperatures behind the initial cold front, the threat of critical fire weather remains low at this time. ...Southern California... Model guidance continues to suggest potential for strong northerly/northeasterly wind even late Sunday into Monday afternoon. Given the upper-level wind support along the western flank of the trough, strong wind gusts will be likely, particularly within the terrain. Even with dry and windy conditions, current fuel information, in addition to the rain expected to occur into this Saturday, suggests fire weather risk with this event does not appear to be high. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Southwest late this weekend and continue eastward through the Southeast. While ridging aloft will quickly build in the West behind this features, another trough is forecast to take a similar path mid/late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains early next week with another expected as the second trough moves eastward late next week into the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... With the approach of the trough this weekend, areas of dry and breezy conditions will be possible. Precipitation associated with the trough will occur within parts of the region, but some areas may not receive much rainfall. At present, the driest conditions appear most likely from the Trans-Pecos into the South Plains. Additional dry and windy conditions are possible toward the end of next week with the next trough forecast to move into the region. Given the potential for precipitation and the cooler temperatures behind the initial cold front, the threat of critical fire weather remains low at this time. ...Southern California... Model guidance continues to suggest potential for strong northerly/northeasterly wind even late Sunday into Monday afternoon. Given the upper-level wind support along the western flank of the trough, strong wind gusts will be likely, particularly within the terrain. Even with dry and windy conditions, current fuel information, in addition to the rain expected to occur into this Saturday, suggests fire weather risk with this event does not appear to be high. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions appear more likely within parts of the Piedmont. RH at or below 30% is still expected. The strongest pressure gradient may occur prior to the warmest temperatures during the afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) will be possible. A few higher gusts could also occur, though vertical mixing will not likely be overly robust. Given the state of fuels and recent fire activity, some potential for large fires, or at least exacerbation of current fires, will exist. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions appear more likely within parts of the Piedmont. RH at or below 30% is still expected. The strongest pressure gradient may occur prior to the warmest temperatures during the afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) will be possible. A few higher gusts could also occur, though vertical mixing will not likely be overly robust. Given the state of fuels and recent fire activity, some potential for large fires, or at least exacerbation of current fires, will exist. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions appear more likely within parts of the Piedmont. RH at or below 30% is still expected. The strongest pressure gradient may occur prior to the warmest temperatures during the afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) will be possible. A few higher gusts could also occur, though vertical mixing will not likely be overly robust. Given the state of fuels and recent fire activity, some potential for large fires, or at least exacerbation of current fires, will exist. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions appear more likely within parts of the Piedmont. RH at or below 30% is still expected. The strongest pressure gradient may occur prior to the warmest temperatures during the afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) will be possible. A few higher gusts could also occur, though vertical mixing will not likely be overly robust. Given the state of fuels and recent fire activity, some potential for large fires, or at least exacerbation of current fires, will exist. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions appear more likely within parts of the Piedmont. RH at or below 30% is still expected. The strongest pressure gradient may occur prior to the warmest temperatures during the afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) will be possible. A few higher gusts could also occur, though vertical mixing will not likely be overly robust. Given the state of fuels and recent fire activity, some potential for large fires, or at least exacerbation of current fires, will exist. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions appear more likely within parts of the Piedmont. RH at or below 30% is still expected. The strongest pressure gradient may occur prior to the warmest temperatures during the afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) will be possible. A few higher gusts could also occur, though vertical mixing will not likely be overly robust. Given the state of fuels and recent fire activity, some potential for large fires, or at least exacerbation of current fires, will exist. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more