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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Flash drought was affecting crops in the Appomattox area. In addition, the ground was so hard that a farmer could not plant his field. WSET-TV ABC 13 (Lynchburg, Va.), June 24, 2024

Kennewick Irrigation District implemented a mandatory watering schedule for its customers beginning July 7 as drought conditions intensify. This is the first mandatory restriction for residential irrigation since the drought of 2015, but unlike 2015, it ought to be in place for three to four weeks instead of most of the summer. Water restrictions were already in effect for KID agricultural water users. Tri-City Herald (Kennewick, Wash.), June 24, 2024 The Bureau of Reclamation’s June irrigation forecast for the Yakima Basin for the May 21-September 30 period estimated that junior water rights holders would receive 47% of the full entitlements, while senior water rights holders will receive 100%. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, June 6, 2024 Parts of the Northwest did not receive enough precipitation, and the low to mid-elevation snowpack was mostly nearly gone across much of Washington. Some irrigators relying on water from the Yakima River are junior water rights holders and will get just 54% of a full allotment of water this year. The water shortage means that some growers will have to ration all summer and may lose irrigation water in August or September instead of mid-October. A pinot noir wine grape grower pulled out his thirsty vines and planted baby concord juice grape vines that require about 10 to 12 inches of water annually, or half of the amount of water that the pinot noir vines needed. Northwest Public Broadcasting (Pullman, Wash.), May 6, 2024 The Washington Department of Ecology anticipates that the Yakima Basin will have about 72% of its normal water supply for the 2024 irrigation season and urged people to be mindful of their water use. A drought emergency was declared in the Yakima Basin in July 2023, and it remains in effect through June 30. The emergency could be extended. Ecology anticipates issuing curtailment notices to junior water right users in the Yakima Basin to prevent water levels from dropping further, according to a press release on 2024 water level predictions. KNDU-TV NBC 5 Kennewick (Wash.), March 20, 2024

MD 1502 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern MT/western ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493... Valid 010336Z - 010500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat should shift across a part of east-central Montana before weakening in western North Dakota overnight. DISCUSSION...Strengthening of the low-level jet earlier this evening (the eastern periphery of which is sampled by the Bismarck VWP), yielded an increase in thunderstorm development along remnant outflow from decayed afternoon convection. Thus far, severe wind gusts up to 53 kts have been measured at Miles City, with golfball-sized hail reported in Treasure County, MT. Recently, the more intense updrafts have accelerated northeastward in east-central MT. This trend is expected to continue as MLCIN becomes more pronounced south of the I-94 corridor. The orientation of this evolution will result in storms encountering an increasingly more stable airmass in western ND. This should yield a diminishing trend to storms as they spread farther northeastward overnight. Until that time, isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible, mainly through about 06Z. ..Grams.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47590599 48190480 48390391 48410310 48030270 47660296 47200341 46780515 46750577 47320626 47590599 Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MLS TO 35 WSW GDV TO 15 ESE OLF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-025-079-083-087-109-010540- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FALLON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD WIBAUX NDC007-033-053-010540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MLS TO 35 WSW GDV TO 15 ESE OLF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-025-079-083-087-109-010540- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FALLON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD WIBAUX NDC007-033-053-010540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more