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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear. ...Southeast... Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable. One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more muted/shallow convection. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially. Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear. ...Southeast... Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable. One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more muted/shallow convection. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially. Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear. ...Southeast... Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable. One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more muted/shallow convection. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially. Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear. ...Southeast... Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable. One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more muted/shallow convection. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially. Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear. ...Southeast... Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable. One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more muted/shallow convection. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially. Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MOB TO 15 WSW LGC AND 25 N GPT TO 35 SW SEM TO 20 NW MGM. ..BROYLES..02/13/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-013-035-039-041-053-081-087-109-113-130840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

MD 0093 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6...7... FOR SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...southern AL...southwest GA...western FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...7... Valid 130518Z - 130645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6, 7 continues. SUMMARY...A lowering-probability tornado and strong wind threat should persist through the early morning. DISCUSSION...Overall severe potential appears to be on a downward trajectory from earlier this evening with a lack of stronger, sustained supercells along and southwest of the slow-moving warm front that extends from Elmore to Russell County, AL. Trends in MOB VWP data reveal an increasingly veered low-level wind profile and 0-1 km SRH decreasing to around 200 m2/s2. Still, at least a low-probability tornado/wind threat should persist through early morning along and just south of this front as convection progresses east. The northeast extent of these threats into GA will be modulated by eventual occlusion of the warm-moist sector in southwest to west-central GA, as the central AL surface low decays and warm-sector pressure rises increase. ..Grams.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32878588 32938554 32868519 32418461 31898442 31628463 31468513 31118586 30468683 30428757 30758775 31278766 31768715 32228669 32878588 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... A large-scale upper trough will shift east from the MS Valley into the Great Lakes and the central Appalachians during the day and become increasingly displaced from the northeast Gulf Coast. Likewise, a surface low initially near Lakes Erie/Ontario will develop northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley as a trailing cold front pushes southeast through the northeast Gulf Coast/Southeast U.S. A band of showers/thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from the FL Panhandle north-northeastward into south-central GA and SC. The severe risk will likely focus during the morning as the environment will support enlarged hodographs within a moist/weakly unstable warm sector (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of the cold front. Storm intensity will likely diminish considerably during the afternoon as the southern periphery of an 850-mb speed max shifts northeast. A few stronger storms embedded within the band may be associated with a threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado before this threat wanes. ...Central Valley of California... A powerful mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland during the day and reach the Great Basin tonight. Initial shower activity associated with strong low-level warm-air advection will move east/south by the early to mid afternoon. A period of weak destabilization is expected by the mid-late afternoon due in part to strong mid-level cold-air advection (500-mb temperatures cooling into the -22 to -25 deg C range). As a result, the steepening of lapse rates may yield upwards of 250 J/kg SBCAPE. Low-topped convection is currently progged in the latest convection-allowing model guidance in the central valley. Forecast soundings show relatively moist/near-saturated low levels coincident with strengthening and veering flow with height in the lowest 3 km. A couple of stronger updrafts may exhibit transient rotation and potentially yield a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... A large-scale upper trough will shift east from the MS Valley into the Great Lakes and the central Appalachians during the day and become increasingly displaced from the northeast Gulf Coast. Likewise, a surface low initially near Lakes Erie/Ontario will develop northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley as a trailing cold front pushes southeast through the northeast Gulf Coast/Southeast U.S. A band of showers/thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from the FL Panhandle north-northeastward into south-central GA and SC. The severe risk will likely focus during the morning as the environment will support enlarged hodographs within a moist/weakly unstable warm sector (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of the cold front. Storm intensity will likely diminish considerably during the afternoon as the southern periphery of an 850-mb speed max shifts northeast. A few stronger storms embedded within the band may be associated with a threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado before this threat wanes. ...Central Valley of California... A powerful mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland during the day and reach the Great Basin tonight. Initial shower activity associated with strong low-level warm-air advection will move east/south by the early to mid afternoon. A period of weak destabilization is expected by the mid-late afternoon due in part to strong mid-level cold-air advection (500-mb temperatures cooling into the -22 to -25 deg C range). As a result, the steepening of lapse rates may yield upwards of 250 J/kg SBCAPE. Low-topped convection is currently progged in the latest convection-allowing model guidance in the central valley. Forecast soundings show relatively moist/near-saturated low levels coincident with strengthening and veering flow with height in the lowest 3 km. A couple of stronger updrafts may exhibit transient rotation and potentially yield a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... A large-scale upper trough will shift east from the MS Valley into the Great Lakes and the central Appalachians during the day and become increasingly displaced from the northeast Gulf Coast. Likewise, a surface low initially near Lakes Erie/Ontario will develop northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley as a trailing cold front pushes southeast through the northeast Gulf Coast/Southeast U.S. A band of showers/thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from the FL Panhandle north-northeastward into south-central GA and SC. The severe risk will likely focus during the morning as the environment will support enlarged hodographs within a moist/weakly unstable warm sector (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of the cold front. Storm intensity will likely diminish considerably during the afternoon as the southern periphery of an 850-mb speed max shifts northeast. A few stronger storms embedded within the band may be associated with a threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado before this threat wanes. ...Central Valley of California... A powerful mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland during the day and reach the Great Basin tonight. Initial shower activity associated with strong low-level warm-air advection will move east/south by the early to mid afternoon. A period of weak destabilization is expected by the mid-late afternoon due in part to strong mid-level cold-air advection (500-mb temperatures cooling into the -22 to -25 deg C range). As a result, the steepening of lapse rates may yield upwards of 250 J/kg SBCAPE. Low-topped convection is currently progged in the latest convection-allowing model guidance in the central valley. Forecast soundings show relatively moist/near-saturated low levels coincident with strengthening and veering flow with height in the lowest 3 km. A couple of stronger updrafts may exhibit transient rotation and potentially yield a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/13/2025 Read more