Tropical Depression Celia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Celia Public Advisory Number 12

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 ...CELIA MOVING WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 92.4W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so followed by gradual strengthening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Discussion Number 22

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 191434 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during the past several hours. The storm is maintaining an area of deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Blas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 191433 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 16(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 2 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Blas Public Advisory Number 22

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 191433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 ...BLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 113.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Advisory Number 12

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 396 WTPZ23 KNHC 191433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 91.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.4N 93.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.8N 95.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.7N 97.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 99.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Advisory Number 22

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 397 WTPZ22 KNHC 191433 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 year 9 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Depression Celia, located a short distance south of Guatemala.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion Number 8

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181439 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet, this activity does not have much organization and already appears to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is changed little from the previous forecast. Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity, and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Celia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Celia Public Advisory Number 8

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 90.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are decreasing. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 90.0 West. The depression is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A further turn to the west is expected by tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Advisory Number 8

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE CHANGES OF DIRECT WIND IMPACTS ARE DECREASING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 89.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 90.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Discussion Number 18

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181432 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning. Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be positioned closer to the various consensus aids. Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should subside tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Blas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 181431 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 11(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Blas Public Advisory Number 18

1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 181431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
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4 years 5 months ago
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