1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 191434
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 191434
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
...CELIA MOVING WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 92.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a
west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so
followed by gradual strengthening.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
...CELIA MOVING WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 19
the center of Celia was located near 12.8, -92.4
with movement W at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191434
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during
the past several hours. The storm is maintaining an area of deep
convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak
classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based
on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is
already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even
cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass.
These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will
likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.
The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even
slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until
the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower
than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 191433
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 3 16(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 2 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191433
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
...BLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 113.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a
remnant low on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
...BLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...
As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jun 19
the center of Blas was located near 19.0, -113.0
with movement WNW at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
396
WTPZ23 KNHC 191433
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 91.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.4N 93.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.8N 95.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.7N 97.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 99.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 92.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
397
WTPZ22 KNHC 191433
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.8W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 113.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191120
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 19 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Depression Celia, located a short distance south of Guatemala.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 14:39:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:31:18 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 181439
TCDEP3
Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight
satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of
convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet,
this activity does not have much organization and already appears
to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the
system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT
and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity
will remain 30 kt for this advisory.
Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the
motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia
should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer
steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward
motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a
more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more
northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a
touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is
changed little from the previous forecast.
Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue
affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary
reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity,
and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or
reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity
should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is
forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity
to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of
the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus
aids.
Key Messages:
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.
2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to
decrease.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 181436
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
10N 95W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P SAN JOSE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 181435
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 90.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are
decreasing.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 90.0 West. The
depression is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A further turn to the west is expected by tonight with a
gradual increase in forward speed by early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of
Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico,
Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4
inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides
across the region.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...
As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 18
the center of Celia was located near 12.8, -90.0
with movement WNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 181435
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE CHANGES OF DIRECT WIND IMPACTS ARE
DECREASING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 89.8W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 90.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 14:33:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:24:06 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 181432
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning.
Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center
with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the
circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the
intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory.
The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4
kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within
the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the
middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be
positioned closer to the various consensus aids.
Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity
forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the
majority of the guidance.
Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should
subside tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 181431
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 11(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
1 year 9 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181431
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 111.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a
remnant low early next week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
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