4 years 6 months ago
...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
the center of Jerry was located near 31.8, -67.9
with movement NE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
000
WTNT25 KNHC 250852
TCMAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 68.4W
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
000
WTNT42 KNHC 250852
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
Karen's convection has increased significantly and become better
organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level
circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has
intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely
encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level
wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the
southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened
slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent
increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced
increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller
radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest
that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity
is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation
that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since
weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images.
Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger
and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a
northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward
motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward
to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering
currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or
make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast
that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States
to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to west-southwestward
direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model
TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models
FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south.
The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the
dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for
the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day
5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models
show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with
Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global
models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level
circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry
mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting
off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that
Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and
underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors
strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C
water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity
forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model
solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a
little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.
Key Messages:
1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and
mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 20.5N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
000
FONT12 KNHC 250852
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
000
WTNT32 KNHC 250852
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of
Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands today through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.
These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...
As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
the center of Karen was located near 20.5, -65.2
with movement N at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
000
WTNT22 KNHC 250850
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 65.2W
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 06:00:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:31:46 GMT
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 06:00:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:24:50 GMT
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
000
WTNT32 KNHC 250559
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1
West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion
toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther
away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong
squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will
continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding
by late morning.
Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h)
was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through today:
Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be
higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in
elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...
As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
the center of Karen was located near 19.8, -65.1
with movement N at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
000
WTNT35 KNHC 250559
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS
FOR NOW...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
this morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast by tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda later today.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days
and Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later
today.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS FOR NOW...
As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
the center of Jerry was located near 31.6, -68.4
with movement NE at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 250539
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda,
on Tropical Storm Karen, located about 100 miles north-northeast of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and on Tropical Storm
Lorenzo, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
A low pressure system located just offshore of the northwestern
coast of the Yucatan peninsula is producing limited shower activity.
Little or no development is expected through Thursday while the
system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By Friday, however, some development of the disturbance
is possible before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 02:43:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:24:50 GMT
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 02:42:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:31:46 GMT
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT45 KNHC 250240
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the
cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this
evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of
34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation
yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps
conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is
being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to
continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next
couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry
could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning.
Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential
to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would
continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that
island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little
more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast.
Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or
025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday
as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught
within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry
get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn
southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track
forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is
closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 31.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 250240
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 9 38(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
BERMUDA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
000
WTNT25 KNHC 250239
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 68.9W
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 68.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster
4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000
WTNT35 KNHC 250239
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day
or two.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Subscribe to National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map feed