Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 32

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250852 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 13

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen's convection has increased significantly and become better organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images. Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south. The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day 5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 20.5N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 250852 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 13

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250852 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 65.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)

4 years 6 months ago
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 20.5, -65.2 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 13

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250850 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 12A

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250559 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding by late morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h) was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through today: Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 31A

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250559 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected this morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days and Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later today. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

4 years 6 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250539
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda,
on Tropical Storm Karen, located about 100 miles north-northeast of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and on Tropical Storm
Lorenzo, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A low pressure system located just offshore of the northwestern
coast of the Yucatan peninsula is producing limited shower activity.
Little or no development is expected through Thursday while the
system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By Friday, however, some development of the disturbance
is possible before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 31

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of 34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning. Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast. Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or 025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 31.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 250240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 9 38(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BERMUDA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 31

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 68.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 68.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 31

4 years 6 months ago
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
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4 years 5 months ago
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