Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0209 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern Indiana into far southeast Lower Michigan and western Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151948Z - 152115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail/wind or a brief tornado are possible into early evening.The severe threat should be sparse at best and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing in coverage and intensity within a low-level moisture axis preceding the approach of a mid-level trough. Vertical strengthening and veering of flow with height supports 40 kts of effective bulk shear. KIWX radar shows that some of the more recent, stronger storm structures have exhibited multicellular to transient supercellular characteristics. However, these storms are progressing in a marginally unstable environment, characterized by 500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, one of the stronger storms could produce an instance of marginally severe hail/wind/a brief tornado. However, the severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX... LAT...LON 39438766 41008646 42358526 42818360 42638322 42248321 41808337 41068290 40438305 39708345 39438427 39548566 39438766 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more