Severe Storms

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-013-015-021-023-025-033-035-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095- 099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133- 152240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COLBERT CONECUH COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON MSC039-041-111-131-153-152240- Read more

WW 46 TORNADO AL MS 151725Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 46 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western, Central, and Northern Alabama Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercells capable of producing numerous tornadoes will spread eastward from Mississippi into Alabama this afternoon and evening. Given the very favorable environment, multiple intense to potentially violent tornadoes (EF-3/EF-4+) appear possible. Clusters of thunderstorms and embedded supercells will also pose a threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Huntsville AL to 55 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HSV TO 50 SSE BNA TO 50 E BWG. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-061-087-103-127-133-137-141- 175-177-185-152240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HSV TO 50 SSE BNA TO 50 E BWG. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-061-087-103-127-133-137-141- 175-177-185-152240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HSV TO 50 SSE BNA TO 50 E BWG. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-061-087-103-127-133-137-141- 175-177-185-152240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 47 TORNADO TN 151750Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 47 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward across middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Widespread damaging winds up to 60-75 mph are expected along with several tornadoes as the environment becomes increasingly favorable for severe thunderstorms. A couple strong to intense tornadoes also appear posssible with any embedded supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of Nashville TN to 85 miles south southwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more