Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0050 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0050 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...Central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 160547Z - 160645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization will support a continued threat of wind damage and a few tornadoes into central/southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle through early morning. A new tornado may be needed after 06z. DISCUSSION...A band of storms with embedded bow/supercell characteristics is moving east-northeastward into west central GA, with continued storm development farther southwest along a confluence zone across southeast AL. The storms are along the eastern edge of the richer low-level moisture, but a 70 kt low-level jet will result in sufficient moisture transport near/just above the surface to maintain the convection for the next several hours. Given the very strong low-level shear/large hodographs, the potential for occasional wind damage and embedded circulations/tornadoes will persist. Thus, a new tornado watch will likely be needed into central/southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle after 06z. ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 33318405 34148361 33888277 32888240 32038286 31438316 29898384 29788541 31298501 31928468 33318405 Read more

MD 0218 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 160419Z - 160615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...Two long-track supercells across eastern/southeastern AL will pose a risk for significant tornadoes downstream into far western GA over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Two leading supercells across eastern and southeastern AL have both recently produced tornadoes based on KEOX and KMXX velocity and dual pol data. Surface observations just ahead of these cells show 30-40 mph low-level winds are advecting high-quality moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) ahead of the storms. This suggests that although these cells are approaching the eastern edge of the effective warm sector, they will likely remain in a favorable thermodynamic environment for the next 1-2 hours. Additionally, regional VWPs continue to sample 0-1 km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2, which is supporting STP values on the order of 2-4 in proximity to the storms/within the inflow region. Based on this environment and observed rotational velocities (50-60 knots at times), these cells will continue to be capable of producing significant (EF-2+) tornadoes in the short term. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31328599 31348619 31498626 32448576 32798582 33058591 33338577 33478531 33438489 33088466 32568462 32188472 31858498 31568533 31438562 31328599 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more