Tropical Storm Margot Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 FONT14 KNHC 092036 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 18

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092036 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 Lee's satellite presentation has changed little today. The center is embedded within an area of cloud tops below -75C, and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm earlier this afternoon continued to report that Lee has a small eye. However, the eye remains obscured in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, as well as dropsonde data from the earlier mission, yields an intensity of around 100 kt, and the advisory intensity remains that value. Dropsonde data in the center just before 1700 UTC supported a minimum pressure of 958 mb. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm environment again this evening to provide additional information on the structure and strength of the hurricane. Shear analysis from UW/CIMSS indicates that there is still about 15-20 kt of southwesterly shear over Lee. The GFS continues to suggest that the shear will lessen during the next couple of days, creating a more favorable environment for Lee to strengthen. However, the ECMWF and UKMET still favor the notion that the upper-level wind pattern will not become quite as conducive for a couple of more days. Most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual restrengthening and the NHC forecast follows suit. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the consensus models, but not as high as some of the dynamical model guidance and the HFIP corrected consensus. Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Lee is moving west- northwestward at about 9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lee is foreast to shift west-southwestward during the next few days, causing Lee's forward speed to slow considerably through early next week. By midweek, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great Lakes region and into the eastern United States is expected to weaken the ridge and allow Lee to turn north-northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. There is still a significant amount of spread in the deterministic guidance and global model ensembles as to exactly when and where the northward turn takes place. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models are about 275 n mi apart at day 5, primarily due to along-track spread related to how fast Lee begins moving northward. The NHC track forecast continues to lie near the latest consensus aids, and the new track is very similar to the previous forecast. The center of Lee passed about 75 n mi south of NOAA buoy 41044 this afternoon, and that buoy has reported peak 1-minute sustained winds of 47 kt with a gust to 58 kt. That data along with a couple of earlier scatterometer overpass have shown that the tropical-storm force wind field has expanded outward over the eastern semicircle, and that has been reflected in the latest analysis and forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are spreading westward and northward and will affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next several days. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.7N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 60.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.1N 61.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 22.9N 62.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Margot Public Advisory Number 10

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 ...MARGOT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 38.7W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 38.7 West. Margot is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast to begin by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 FONT13 KNHC 092036 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SABA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Advisory Number 10

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 092035 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 15SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 38.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.7N 39.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 40.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 40.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N 41.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 41.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 41.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.8N 41.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 38.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 18

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 ...LEE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 59.1W ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 59.1 West. Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual restrengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 40144 located about 85 miles north-northeast of the center of Lee has reported a peak sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, and are spreading westward to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast on Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT3/AL132023)

6 months 2 weeks ago
...LEE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Lee was located near 20.7, -59.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 18

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092035 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 59.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 59.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 60.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.1N 61.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.9N 62.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 59.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago

716
ABNT20 KNHC 091825
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lee, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Margot, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 14

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 076 WTNT43 KNHC 082040 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 The small eye of Lee has become cloud filled this afternoon. A 1643 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass and the earlier reconnaissance aircraft reports indicate that Lee's eye was a little less than 10 n mi in diameter. The microwave imagery revealed a well-defined inner core but there was a lack of banding noted just outside the core. This is likely due to some drier mid-level air that has wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find any stronger flight-level or SFMR winds after the release of the previous advisory, and the initial intensity for this advisory has been set at 130 kt. This is a blend of the earlier reconnaissance data and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of T6.5 or 127 kt from TAFB and SAB. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee again this evening. The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more conducive for re-strengthening. However, the timing of eyewall replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might re-intensify. Although there is lower-than-normal confidence in the exact details of the intensity forecast, there is high confidence that Lee will remain a powerful hurricane into early next week. The latest NHC wind speed forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus model and the multi-model intensity consensus aids. Lee continues to move west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 11 kt. A well-established mid- to upper-level ridge over the central Atlantic should continue to steer the hurricane west-northward into early next week. The ridge is forecast to build southwestward near Bermuda late this weekend and early next week which is expected cause Lee's forward speed to slow around 5-7 kt between days 2-4. Late in the period, a mid-latitude trough that will be moving into the Great Lakes Region is forecast to weaken the western portion of the ridge, and Lee should begin to turn more poleward around that time. The track guidance is still in good agreement through about 72 hours, but there is slightly more spread at days 4 and 5. The spread is primarily related to speed differences in the guidance during the latter portion of the forecast period. The latest NHC track prediction is again close to the HCCA and TCVA consensus aids, and it is very similar to the previous official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.9N 55.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 56.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 58.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 22.5N 62.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.0N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.7N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.6W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 042 FONT13 KNHC 082040 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 2(12) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 14

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 989 WTNT33 KNHC 082040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 ...CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LEE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 55.5W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 55.5 West. Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, and will reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT3/AL132023)

6 months 2 weeks ago
...CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LEE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 8 the center of Lee was located near 18.9, -55.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 14

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 933 WTNT23 KNHC 082039 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 56.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.6N 58.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 63.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 66.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Discussion Number 6

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082036 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 Margot continues to be a disorganized tropical storm. Over the past few hours, visible satellite depicts the low-level center has become exposed with deep convection displaced to the northeast. This deep convection has continued to persist, however the system has not become better organized today. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showed that the structure of the system is fairly poor with very little banding features. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB for this advisory were unchanged for this cycle. Given the disorganized structure and the satellite estimates, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. Margot is expected to continue this general motion for the next day or so. Afterwards a weakness in the ridge will allow for a turn more northwestward, then northward by early next week. Overall, models are in fairly good cross-track agreement in the short term. However beyond day 3, there begins to be some divergence in the model suite, due to uncertainty in the steering flow. The ECMWF lies on the left side of the envelope, while the GFS is on the right side. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies in the center of the guidance closest to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. The intensity forecast is fairly difficult given the mixed environmental conditions. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear is already impacting the system and is forecast to remain throughout much of the forecast period. Given the competing factors and current lack of organization, the intensity guidance shows only gradual strengthening throughout the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous, near the intensity consensus aids the IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.8N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.0N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 22.2N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 23.6N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 33.1N 43.4W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Margot Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 000 FONT14 KNHC 082036 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Margot Public Advisory Number 6

6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 ...MARGOT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 34.3W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 34.3 West. Margot is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a decrease in forward motion and a turn northwestward, then northward early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast the next several days, with Margot forecast to become a hurricane early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
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