6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
000
FONT14 KNHC 092036
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
000
WTNT43 KNHC 092036
TCDAT3
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
Lee's satellite presentation has changed little today. The center
is embedded within an area of cloud tops below -75C, and the Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm earlier
this afternoon continued to report that Lee has a small eye.
However, the eye remains obscured in both visible and infrared
satellite imagery. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, as
well as dropsonde data from the earlier mission, yields an intensity
of around 100 kt, and the advisory intensity remains that value.
Dropsonde data in the center just before 1700 UTC supported a
minimum pressure of 958 mb. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is scheduled to be
in the storm environment again this evening to provide additional
information on the structure and strength of the hurricane.
Shear analysis from UW/CIMSS indicates that there is still about
15-20 kt of southwesterly shear over Lee. The GFS continues to
suggest that the shear will lessen during the next couple of days,
creating a more favorable environment for Lee to strengthen.
However, the ECMWF and UKMET still favor the notion that the
upper-level wind pattern will not become quite as conducive for a
couple of more days. Most of the intensity guidance calls for
gradual restrengthening and the NHC forecast follows suit. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the consensus models, but not as
high as some of the dynamical model guidance and the HFIP corrected
consensus.
Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Lee is moving west-
northwestward at about 9 kt. There has been no change to the track
forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lee is
foreast to shift west-southwestward during the next few days,
causing Lee's forward speed to slow considerably through early next
week. By midweek, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great
Lakes region and into the eastern United States is expected to
weaken the ridge and allow Lee to turn north-northwestward and
northward on days 4 and 5. There is still a significant amount of
spread in the deterministic guidance and global model ensembles as
to exactly when and where the northward turn takes place. In fact,
the GFS and ECMWF models are about 275 n mi apart at day 5,
primarily due to along-track spread related to how fast Lee begins
moving northward. The NHC track forecast continues to lie near the
latest consensus aids, and the new track is very similar to the
previous forecast.
The center of Lee passed about 75 n mi south of NOAA buoy 41044 this
afternoon, and that buoy has reported peak 1-minute sustained winds
of 47 kt with a gust to 58 kt. That data along with a couple of
earlier scatterometer overpass have shown that the tropical-storm
force wind field has expanded outward over the eastern semicircle,
and that has been reflected in the latest analysis and forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.
2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are
spreading westward and northward and will affect Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during
the next several days.
3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Users should continue to
monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 20.7N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 60.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 22.1N 61.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 22.9N 62.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
000
WTNT34 KNHC 092036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
...MARGOT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 38.7W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 38.7 West. Margot is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next day or so. A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast to begin by late
Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
Margot is forecast to become a hurricane next week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
...MARGOT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9
the center of Margot was located near 21.0, -38.7
with movement NW at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
000
FONT13 KNHC 092036
PWSAT3
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SABA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BARBUDA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ANTIGUA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
000
WTNT24 KNHC 092035
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 38.4W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.7N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 40.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 40.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N 41.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 41.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 41.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.8N 41.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 38.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
000
WTNT33 KNHC 092035
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
...LEE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 59.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 59.1 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into
early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual restrengthening is possible during
the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 40144 located about 85 miles north-northeast of
the center of Lee has reported a peak sustained wind of 54 mph (86
km/h) with a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past couple of
hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, and are spreading westward to the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous
surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S.
East Coast on Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
...LEE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9
the center of Lee was located near 20.7, -59.1
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 958 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
000
WTNT23 KNHC 092035
TCMAT3
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 59.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 59.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 58.8W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.1N 61.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.9N 62.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 59.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
716
ABNT20 KNHC 091825
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lee, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Margot, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 20:42:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 21:23:15 GMT
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
076
WTNT43 KNHC 082040
TCDAT3
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
The small eye of Lee has become cloud filled this afternoon.
A 1643 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass and the earlier reconnaissance
aircraft reports indicate that Lee's eye was a little less than
10 n mi in diameter. The microwave imagery revealed a well-defined
inner core but there was a lack of banding noted just outside the
core. This is likely due to some drier mid-level air that has
wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft did not find any stronger flight-level or SFMR winds
after the release of the previous advisory, and the initial
intensity for this advisory has been set at 130 kt. This is a blend
of the earlier reconnaissance data and subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates of T6.5 or 127 kt from TAFB and SAB. NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee again this
evening.
The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee
today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours. After
that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more
conducive for re-strengthening. However, the timing of eyewall
replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might
re-intensify. Although there is lower-than-normal confidence in
the exact details of the intensity forecast, there is high
confidence that Lee will remain a powerful hurricane into early next
week. The latest NHC wind speed forecast is a blend of the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the multi-model intensity consensus
aids.
Lee continues to move west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 11 kt.
A well-established mid- to upper-level ridge over the central
Atlantic should continue to steer the hurricane west-northward into
early next week. The ridge is forecast to build southwestward near
Bermuda late this weekend and early next week which is expected
cause Lee's forward speed to slow around 5-7 kt between days 2-4.
Late in the period, a mid-latitude trough that will be moving into
the Great Lakes Region is forecast to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, and Lee should begin to turn more poleward around that
time. The track guidance is still in good agreement through about
72 hours, but there is slightly more spread at days 4 and 5.
The spread is primarily related to speed differences in the guidance
during the latter portion of the forecast period. The latest NHC
track prediction is again close to the HCCA and TCVA consensus
aids, and it is very similar to the previous official forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.
2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.
3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 18.9N 55.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 56.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 58.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 22.5N 62.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.0N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.7N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
042
FONT13 KNHC 082040
PWSAT3
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130
KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 2(12)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14)
SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12)
ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
989
WTNT33 KNHC 082040
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
...CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LEE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 55.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 55.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a
powerful major hurricane through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles, and will reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast
beginning Sunday and Monday. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
...CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LEE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 8
the center of Lee was located near 18.9, -55.5
with movement WNW at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 942 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
933
WTNT23 KNHC 082039
TCMAT3
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 55.0W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 56.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.6N 58.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 63.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 66.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 55.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 20:39:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 21:29:48 GMT
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
000
WTNT44 KNHC 082036
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
Margot continues to be a disorganized tropical storm. Over the past
few hours, visible satellite depicts the low-level center has become
exposed with deep convection displaced to the northeast. This deep
convection has continued to persist, however the system has not
become better organized today. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass
showed that the structure of the system is fairly poor with very
little banding features. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB for this advisory were unchanged
for this cycle. Given the disorganized structure and the satellite
estimates, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt along
the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. Margot is expected to
continue this general motion for the next day or so. Afterwards a
weakness in the ridge will allow for a turn more northwestward, then
northward by early next week. Overall, models are in fairly good
cross-track agreement in the short term. However beyond day
3, there begins to be some divergence in the model suite, due to
uncertainty in the steering flow. The ECMWF lies on the left side of
the envelope, while the GFS is on the right side. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies in the
center of the guidance closest to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.
The intensity forecast is fairly difficult given the mixed
environmental conditions. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently
warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear is already
impacting the system and is forecast to remain throughout much of
the forecast period. Given the competing factors and current lack of
organization, the intensity guidance shows only gradual
strengthening throughout the forecast period. The official forecast
is similar to the previous, near the intensity consensus aids the
IVCN and HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 18.8N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 21.0N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 22.2N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 23.6N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 33.1N 43.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
000
FONT14 KNHC 082036
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARGOT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster
6 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
000
WTNT34 KNHC 082036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
...MARGOT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 34.3W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 34.3 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a
decrease in forward motion and a turn northwestward, then northward
early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast the next several days, with
Margot forecast to become a hurricane early next week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
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