Severe Storms

MD 0203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...the middle Rio Grande Valley into parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080709Z - 080945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may become severe as they develop east/northeastward into central Texas. Large and potentially damaging hail will be the primary concern. DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing along a stalled front/theta-e gradient from Terrell to San Saba Counties where mid 60s dewpoints are in place. Greater moisture levels exist just south, with values to around 70 F. Surface winds remain quite weak on both sides of the boundary, resulting in minimal convergence. Steep lapse rates exist just above the boundary layer, and it will not take much lift to get parcels to the LFC. As such, expect a gradual increase in storm coverage along this front, perhaps with a supercell or two consolidating out of the elongated area of convection. Lengthy hodographs, especially in the mid and upper levels, and cold temperatures aloft will likely support hail. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a watch is not anticipated at this time. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30050207 30360154 30900029 31349922 31449863 31169811 30859800 30359809 29979858 29609946 29310032 29240087 29440135 29610174 29750209 30050207 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, with increasingly prevalent surface high pressure and cool continental trajectories east of the Rockies. This will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be relegated to near/south of the front across Florida, and across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, with increasingly prevalent surface high pressure and cool continental trajectories east of the Rockies. This will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be relegated to near/south of the front across Florida, and across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, with increasingly prevalent surface high pressure and cool continental trajectories east of the Rockies. This will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be relegated to near/south of the front across Florida, and across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, with increasingly prevalent surface high pressure and cool continental trajectories east of the Rockies. This will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be relegated to near/south of the front across Florida, and across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, with increasingly prevalent surface high pressure and cool continental trajectories east of the Rockies. This will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be relegated to near/south of the front across Florida, and across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, with increasingly prevalent surface high pressure and cool continental trajectories east of the Rockies. This will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be relegated to near/south of the front across Florida, and across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, with increasingly prevalent surface high pressure and cool continental trajectories east of the Rockies. This will considerably limit convective potential across the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be relegated to near/south of the front across Florida, and across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more