Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0204 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST TX INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...East TX into central/southern LA and southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081520Z - 081715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential is possible through the morning. Hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will become possible with time. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from parts of east TX into LA. A convectively reinforced surface front is draped from northeast TX into northern LA and west-central MS. To the south of the front, rich low-level moisture is in place, with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F. Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating through the morning, but modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg through the morning, helping to maintain convection as it generally spreads eastward. Deep-layer shear is favorable for organized convection across the region, though storms may struggle to mature due to the lack of stronger heating and generally weak low-level lapse rates. Eventually, a couple supercells may become established from east TX into LA and perhaps southwest MS, posing a threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. If supercells can be sustained, a tornado or two will also be possible, especially from central/eastern LA into southwest MS, where some airmass recovery is expected in the wake of an earlier storm cluster, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 is expected to persist through much of the day. Watch issuance will become possible if the threat for maturing supercells appears imminent, though the onset of a greater threat and potential watch timing remain uncertain. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30909589 32129550 32229415 32179289 31939137 31629037 31359017 30689035 30469123 30259235 30169287 30359446 30469504 30689574 30909589 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow, astride increasingly phased northern- and southern-stream troughing -- will shift eastward across the central CONUS through day-1. Through this period, the southern-stream component -- with a series of vorticity maxima initially extending from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains -- will remain more influential. The associated trough should reach central KS, the TX South Plains, and northern Chihuahua by 00Z. By 12Z, the northern part of the trough will reach the Ozarks and begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough digging southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. The southern trough will extend from the Ozarks southwestward over central/southwest TX to the Big Bend region. Several meso-alpha- and smaller-scale vorticity lobes (some convectively generated/augmented) should traverse the foregoing southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near ACT and ABI, which should consolidate toward the eastern low in the next few hours. A cold front extended south-southwestward to just downstream from DRT on the Rio Grande. A diffuse warm-frontal zone was drawn east-southeastward across east TX, central/southeastern LA, and the Gulf offshore from AL and the FL Panhandle. The cold front should reach to near a JAN-GLS-MFE line by 00Z, then from central AL southwestward across southeastern LA to the northwestern Gulf by 12Z tomorrow. The warm front will remain diffuse while shifting northeastward over southern parts of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, ahead of a convective plume discussed below. ...TX/OK to Gulf Coast States... Multiple episodes of thunderstorms are expected across the outlook corridor today, with the greatest potential for well-organized, surface-based convection from parts of east TX eastward to near the GA/AL line, in and near the "slight risk" area. Severe gusts, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Potential appears to be tied primarily to three regimes, with isolated warm-sector supercell(s) possible south and southeast of them: 1. An initially elevated corridor of precip and embedded thunderstorms -- now apparent in composited radar imagery over portions of western/central MS and northern LA. This activity should persist and expand lengthwise somewhat as the foregoing airmass destabilizes today -- with sustained low-level warm advection in its inflow layer lowering the elevation of effective- inflow parcels to surface-based with time over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Modest lapse rates aloft will be offset to some extent by increasing low-level theta-e with time and with southwestward extent, as mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints spread east- northeastward through the day to meet the convective plume. Diabatic heating will be steady and modest, owing to persistent cloud cover, but MLCINH should decrease with time across much of the area south of about I-20. Favorable deep shear is expected (effective-shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt) along with variably large hodographs and 150-300 J/kg SRH in the lowest km. This will yield a favorable supercell/tornado environment, but dominant messy/training convective modes may limit overall organization of severe potential somewhat. 2. Thunderstorms initially in a band from north-central to south- central/southwest TX, near the I-35 corridor and the low/cold front, may increase severe potential as they shift eastward into the western fringes of the environment discussed above, through the remainder of the morning. Some of this activity may merge with the southwestern part of the initially separate first regime to create a very long swath of strong-severe thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon from southern AL to southeast TX. The combined swath of convection should shift slowly eastward/southeastward over the remainder of the outlook area into tonight, maintaining potential for damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadic mesocirculations. 3. An afternoon area of thunderstorms rooted in or just above the boundary layer poleward of the low and frontal zone, across parts of OK and north TX, and spreading southeastward with mainly large-hail/ isolated-gust potential before weakening this evening. Despite the cool surface conditions, some convection may be rooted at or near the surface, with cold midlevel temperatures nearest the trough aloft contributing to steep low/middle-level lapse rates and MUCAPE potentially reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper flow will contribute to effective-shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, supporting organized convective potential. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow, astride increasingly phased northern- and southern-stream troughing -- will shift eastward across the central CONUS through day-1. Through this period, the southern-stream component -- with a series of vorticity maxima initially extending from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains -- will remain more influential. The associated trough should reach central KS, the TX South Plains, and northern Chihuahua by 00Z. By 12Z, the northern part of the trough will reach the Ozarks and begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough digging southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. The southern trough will extend from the Ozarks southwestward over central/southwest TX to the Big Bend region. Several meso-alpha- and smaller-scale vorticity lobes (some convectively generated/augmented) should traverse the foregoing southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near ACT and ABI, which should consolidate toward the eastern low in the next few hours. A cold front extended south-southwestward to just downstream from DRT on the Rio Grande. A diffuse warm-frontal zone was drawn east-southeastward across east TX, central/southeastern LA, and the Gulf offshore from AL and the FL Panhandle. The cold front should reach to near a JAN-GLS-MFE line by 00Z, then from central AL southwestward across southeastern LA to the northwestern Gulf by 12Z tomorrow. The warm front will remain diffuse while shifting northeastward over southern parts of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, ahead of a convective plume discussed below. ...TX/OK to Gulf Coast States... Multiple episodes of thunderstorms are expected across the outlook corridor today, with the greatest potential for well-organized, surface-based convection from parts of east TX eastward to near the GA/AL line, in and near the "slight risk" area. Severe gusts, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Potential appears to be tied primarily to three regimes, with isolated warm-sector supercell(s) possible south and southeast of them: 1. An initially elevated corridor of precip and embedded thunderstorms -- now apparent in composited radar imagery over portions of western/central MS and northern LA. This activity should persist and expand lengthwise somewhat as the foregoing airmass destabilizes today -- with sustained low-level warm advection in its inflow layer lowering the elevation of effective- inflow parcels to surface-based with time over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Modest lapse rates aloft will be offset to some extent by increasing low-level theta-e with time and with southwestward extent, as mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints spread east- northeastward through the day to meet the convective plume. Diabatic heating will be steady and modest, owing to persistent cloud cover, but MLCINH should decrease with time across much of the area south of about I-20. Favorable deep shear is expected (effective-shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt) along with variably large hodographs and 150-300 J/kg SRH in the lowest km. This will yield a favorable supercell/tornado environment, but dominant messy/training convective modes may limit overall organization of severe potential somewhat. 2. Thunderstorms initially in a band from north-central to south- central/southwest TX, near the I-35 corridor and the low/cold front, may increase severe potential as they shift eastward into the western fringes of the environment discussed above, through the remainder of the morning. Some of this activity may merge with the southwestern part of the initially separate first regime to create a very long swath of strong-severe thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon from southern AL to southeast TX. The combined swath of convection should shift slowly eastward/southeastward over the remainder of the outlook area into tonight, maintaining potential for damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadic mesocirculations. 3. An afternoon area of thunderstorms rooted in or just above the boundary layer poleward of the low and frontal zone, across parts of OK and north TX, and spreading southeastward with mainly large-hail/ isolated-gust potential before weakening this evening. Despite the cool surface conditions, some convection may be rooted at or near the surface, with cold midlevel temperatures nearest the trough aloft contributing to steep low/middle-level lapse rates and MUCAPE potentially reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper flow will contribute to effective-shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, supporting organized convective potential. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow, astride increasingly phased northern- and southern-stream troughing -- will shift eastward across the central CONUS through day-1. Through this period, the southern-stream component -- with a series of vorticity maxima initially extending from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains -- will remain more influential. The associated trough should reach central KS, the TX South Plains, and northern Chihuahua by 00Z. By 12Z, the northern part of the trough will reach the Ozarks and begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough digging southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. The southern trough will extend from the Ozarks southwestward over central/southwest TX to the Big Bend region. Several meso-alpha- and smaller-scale vorticity lobes (some convectively generated/augmented) should traverse the foregoing southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near ACT and ABI, which should consolidate toward the eastern low in the next few hours. A cold front extended south-southwestward to just downstream from DRT on the Rio Grande. A diffuse warm-frontal zone was drawn east-southeastward across east TX, central/southeastern LA, and the Gulf offshore from AL and the FL Panhandle. The cold front should reach to near a JAN-GLS-MFE line by 00Z, then from central AL southwestward across southeastern LA to the northwestern Gulf by 12Z tomorrow. The warm front will remain diffuse while shifting northeastward over southern parts of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, ahead of a convective plume discussed below. ...TX/OK to Gulf Coast States... Multiple episodes of thunderstorms are expected across the outlook corridor today, with the greatest potential for well-organized, surface-based convection from parts of east TX eastward to near the GA/AL line, in and near the "slight risk" area. Severe gusts, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Potential appears to be tied primarily to three regimes, with isolated warm-sector supercell(s) possible south and southeast of them: 1. An initially elevated corridor of precip and embedded thunderstorms -- now apparent in composited radar imagery over portions of western/central MS and northern LA. This activity should persist and expand lengthwise somewhat as the foregoing airmass destabilizes today -- with sustained low-level warm advection in its inflow layer lowering the elevation of effective- inflow parcels to surface-based with time over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Modest lapse rates aloft will be offset to some extent by increasing low-level theta-e with time and with southwestward extent, as mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints spread east- northeastward through the day to meet the convective plume. Diabatic heating will be steady and modest, owing to persistent cloud cover, but MLCINH should decrease with time across much of the area south of about I-20. Favorable deep shear is expected (effective-shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt) along with variably large hodographs and 150-300 J/kg SRH in the lowest km. This will yield a favorable supercell/tornado environment, but dominant messy/training convective modes may limit overall organization of severe potential somewhat. 2. Thunderstorms initially in a band from north-central to south- central/southwest TX, near the I-35 corridor and the low/cold front, may increase severe potential as they shift eastward into the western fringes of the environment discussed above, through the remainder of the morning. Some of this activity may merge with the southwestern part of the initially separate first regime to create a very long swath of strong-severe thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon from southern AL to southeast TX. The combined swath of convection should shift slowly eastward/southeastward over the remainder of the outlook area into tonight, maintaining potential for damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadic mesocirculations. 3. An afternoon area of thunderstorms rooted in or just above the boundary layer poleward of the low and frontal zone, across parts of OK and north TX, and spreading southeastward with mainly large-hail/ isolated-gust potential before weakening this evening. Despite the cool surface conditions, some convection may be rooted at or near the surface, with cold midlevel temperatures nearest the trough aloft contributing to steep low/middle-level lapse rates and MUCAPE potentially reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper flow will contribute to effective-shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, supporting organized convective potential. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow, astride increasingly phased northern- and southern-stream troughing -- will shift eastward across the central CONUS through day-1. Through this period, the southern-stream component -- with a series of vorticity maxima initially extending from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains -- will remain more influential. The associated trough should reach central KS, the TX South Plains, and northern Chihuahua by 00Z. By 12Z, the northern part of the trough will reach the Ozarks and begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough digging southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. The southern trough will extend from the Ozarks southwestward over central/southwest TX to the Big Bend region. Several meso-alpha- and smaller-scale vorticity lobes (some convectively generated/augmented) should traverse the foregoing southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near ACT and ABI, which should consolidate toward the eastern low in the next few hours. A cold front extended south-southwestward to just downstream from DRT on the Rio Grande. A diffuse warm-frontal zone was drawn east-southeastward across east TX, central/southeastern LA, and the Gulf offshore from AL and the FL Panhandle. The cold front should reach to near a JAN-GLS-MFE line by 00Z, then from central AL southwestward across southeastern LA to the northwestern Gulf by 12Z tomorrow. The warm front will remain diffuse while shifting northeastward over southern parts of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, ahead of a convective plume discussed below. ...TX/OK to Gulf Coast States... Multiple episodes of thunderstorms are expected across the outlook corridor today, with the greatest potential for well-organized, surface-based convection from parts of east TX eastward to near the GA/AL line, in and near the "slight risk" area. Severe gusts, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Potential appears to be tied primarily to three regimes, with isolated warm-sector supercell(s) possible south and southeast of them: 1. An initially elevated corridor of precip and embedded thunderstorms -- now apparent in composited radar imagery over portions of western/central MS and northern LA. This activity should persist and expand lengthwise somewhat as the foregoing airmass destabilizes today -- with sustained low-level warm advection in its inflow layer lowering the elevation of effective- inflow parcels to surface-based with time over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Modest lapse rates aloft will be offset to some extent by increasing low-level theta-e with time and with southwestward extent, as mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints spread east- northeastward through the day to meet the convective plume. Diabatic heating will be steady and modest, owing to persistent cloud cover, but MLCINH should decrease with time across much of the area south of about I-20. Favorable deep shear is expected (effective-shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt) along with variably large hodographs and 150-300 J/kg SRH in the lowest km. This will yield a favorable supercell/tornado environment, but dominant messy/training convective modes may limit overall organization of severe potential somewhat. 2. Thunderstorms initially in a band from north-central to south- central/southwest TX, near the I-35 corridor and the low/cold front, may increase severe potential as they shift eastward into the western fringes of the environment discussed above, through the remainder of the morning. Some of this activity may merge with the southwestern part of the initially separate first regime to create a very long swath of strong-severe thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon from southern AL to southeast TX. The combined swath of convection should shift slowly eastward/southeastward over the remainder of the outlook area into tonight, maintaining potential for damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadic mesocirculations. 3. An afternoon area of thunderstorms rooted in or just above the boundary layer poleward of the low and frontal zone, across parts of OK and north TX, and spreading southeastward with mainly large-hail/ isolated-gust potential before weakening this evening. Despite the cool surface conditions, some convection may be rooted at or near the surface, with cold midlevel temperatures nearest the trough aloft contributing to steep low/middle-level lapse rates and MUCAPE potentially reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper flow will contribute to effective-shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, supporting organized convective potential. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow, astride increasingly phased northern- and southern-stream troughing -- will shift eastward across the central CONUS through day-1. Through this period, the southern-stream component -- with a series of vorticity maxima initially extending from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains -- will remain more influential. The associated trough should reach central KS, the TX South Plains, and northern Chihuahua by 00Z. By 12Z, the northern part of the trough will reach the Ozarks and begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough digging southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. The southern trough will extend from the Ozarks southwestward over central/southwest TX to the Big Bend region. Several meso-alpha- and smaller-scale vorticity lobes (some convectively generated/augmented) should traverse the foregoing southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near ACT and ABI, which should consolidate toward the eastern low in the next few hours. A cold front extended south-southwestward to just downstream from DRT on the Rio Grande. A diffuse warm-frontal zone was drawn east-southeastward across east TX, central/southeastern LA, and the Gulf offshore from AL and the FL Panhandle. The cold front should reach to near a JAN-GLS-MFE line by 00Z, then from central AL southwestward across southeastern LA to the northwestern Gulf by 12Z tomorrow. The warm front will remain diffuse while shifting northeastward over southern parts of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, ahead of a convective plume discussed below. ...TX/OK to Gulf Coast States... Multiple episodes of thunderstorms are expected across the outlook corridor today, with the greatest potential for well-organized, surface-based convection from parts of east TX eastward to near the GA/AL line, in and near the "slight risk" area. Severe gusts, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Potential appears to be tied primarily to three regimes, with isolated warm-sector supercell(s) possible south and southeast of them: 1. An initially elevated corridor of precip and embedded thunderstorms -- now apparent in composited radar imagery over portions of western/central MS and northern LA. This activity should persist and expand lengthwise somewhat as the foregoing airmass destabilizes today -- with sustained low-level warm advection in its inflow layer lowering the elevation of effective- inflow parcels to surface-based with time over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Modest lapse rates aloft will be offset to some extent by increasing low-level theta-e with time and with southwestward extent, as mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints spread east- northeastward through the day to meet the convective plume. Diabatic heating will be steady and modest, owing to persistent cloud cover, but MLCINH should decrease with time across much of the area south of about I-20. Favorable deep shear is expected (effective-shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt) along with variably large hodographs and 150-300 J/kg SRH in the lowest km. This will yield a favorable supercell/tornado environment, but dominant messy/training convective modes may limit overall organization of severe potential somewhat. 2. Thunderstorms initially in a band from north-central to south- central/southwest TX, near the I-35 corridor and the low/cold front, may increase severe potential as they shift eastward into the western fringes of the environment discussed above, through the remainder of the morning. Some of this activity may merge with the southwestern part of the initially separate first regime to create a very long swath of strong-severe thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon from southern AL to southeast TX. The combined swath of convection should shift slowly eastward/southeastward over the remainder of the outlook area into tonight, maintaining potential for damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadic mesocirculations. 3. An afternoon area of thunderstorms rooted in or just above the boundary layer poleward of the low and frontal zone, across parts of OK and north TX, and spreading southeastward with mainly large-hail/ isolated-gust potential before weakening this evening. Despite the cool surface conditions, some convection may be rooted at or near the surface, with cold midlevel temperatures nearest the trough aloft contributing to steep low/middle-level lapse rates and MUCAPE potentially reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper flow will contribute to effective-shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, supporting organized convective potential. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow, astride increasingly phased northern- and southern-stream troughing -- will shift eastward across the central CONUS through day-1. Through this period, the southern-stream component -- with a series of vorticity maxima initially extending from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains -- will remain more influential. The associated trough should reach central KS, the TX South Plains, and northern Chihuahua by 00Z. By 12Z, the northern part of the trough will reach the Ozarks and begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough digging southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. The southern trough will extend from the Ozarks southwestward over central/southwest TX to the Big Bend region. Several meso-alpha- and smaller-scale vorticity lobes (some convectively generated/augmented) should traverse the foregoing southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near ACT and ABI, which should consolidate toward the eastern low in the next few hours. A cold front extended south-southwestward to just downstream from DRT on the Rio Grande. A diffuse warm-frontal zone was drawn east-southeastward across east TX, central/southeastern LA, and the Gulf offshore from AL and the FL Panhandle. The cold front should reach to near a JAN-GLS-MFE line by 00Z, then from central AL southwestward across southeastern LA to the northwestern Gulf by 12Z tomorrow. The warm front will remain diffuse while shifting northeastward over southern parts of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, ahead of a convective plume discussed below. ...TX/OK to Gulf Coast States... Multiple episodes of thunderstorms are expected across the outlook corridor today, with the greatest potential for well-organized, surface-based convection from parts of east TX eastward to near the GA/AL line, in and near the "slight risk" area. Severe gusts, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Potential appears to be tied primarily to three regimes, with isolated warm-sector supercell(s) possible south and southeast of them: 1. An initially elevated corridor of precip and embedded thunderstorms -- now apparent in composited radar imagery over portions of western/central MS and northern LA. This activity should persist and expand lengthwise somewhat as the foregoing airmass destabilizes today -- with sustained low-level warm advection in its inflow layer lowering the elevation of effective- inflow parcels to surface-based with time over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Modest lapse rates aloft will be offset to some extent by increasing low-level theta-e with time and with southwestward extent, as mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints spread east- northeastward through the day to meet the convective plume. Diabatic heating will be steady and modest, owing to persistent cloud cover, but MLCINH should decrease with time across much of the area south of about I-20. Favorable deep shear is expected (effective-shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt) along with variably large hodographs and 150-300 J/kg SRH in the lowest km. This will yield a favorable supercell/tornado environment, but dominant messy/training convective modes may limit overall organization of severe potential somewhat. 2. Thunderstorms initially in a band from north-central to south- central/southwest TX, near the I-35 corridor and the low/cold front, may increase severe potential as they shift eastward into the western fringes of the environment discussed above, through the remainder of the morning. Some of this activity may merge with the southwestern part of the initially separate first regime to create a very long swath of strong-severe thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon from southern AL to southeast TX. The combined swath of convection should shift slowly eastward/southeastward over the remainder of the outlook area into tonight, maintaining potential for damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadic mesocirculations. 3. An afternoon area of thunderstorms rooted in or just above the boundary layer poleward of the low and frontal zone, across parts of OK and north TX, and spreading southeastward with mainly large-hail/ isolated-gust potential before weakening this evening. Despite the cool surface conditions, some convection may be rooted at or near the surface, with cold midlevel temperatures nearest the trough aloft contributing to steep low/middle-level lapse rates and MUCAPE potentially reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper flow will contribute to effective-shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, supporting organized convective potential. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/08/2024 Read more