Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from its initial position over the Lower CO River Valley/western AZ eastward across the Southwest and then more northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by the early afternoon. A northeastward progression will continue thereafter, with the wave moving into the Lower MO Valley during the evening and Mid MS Valley overnight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with 70-80 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across the southern Plains throughout the day and across the Lower MO Valley and Mid MS Valley overnight. Progression of this shortwave will help induce deep surface cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. By Sunday afternoon, a sub-985 mb low will likely be over the southern CO/KS border vicinity, with a dryline arcing southeastward from this low across the OK Panhandle and then southward across western OK and into southwest TX. This low is then forecast to move eastward across KS, with the an attendant dryline only making minor eastward progress until after midnight when more eastward push is anticipated again. ...Central/Southern Plains... General consensus within the guidance places low 50s dewpoints over western OK early Sunday morning, with higher dewpoints still south of the Red River. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely still be along the Lower TX Coast. A robust mass response is anticipated, with strong low-level flow contributing to notable moisture return. Even so, dewpoints will likely still be in the low to mid 50s across western OK as the dryline moves into the region during the afternoon. Additionally, early period precipitation and widespread cloud cover will temper heating, especially from central portions of KS and OK eastward/northeastward. As a result, while the overall upper pattern and resulting wind fields match a typical southern/central Plains severe event, the lack of better low-level moisture will act as a major limiting factor. Initiation appears most probable across southwest KS during the late afternoon (around 21Z) near the surface low. Slightly deeper boundary-layer mixing is possible in this area, and dewpoints are only expected to be in the 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent (both from the approaching shortwave trough and more mesoscale near the low and dryline) should be sufficient for storm development. Vertical wind profiles in this area support storm organization and an initially discrete supercell mode is anticipated. Initiation farther south across western OK and northwest TX is more uncertain, owing to the persistence of warm low to mid-level temperatures and weaker large-scale ascent. As such, a more conditional potential exists in these areas with favorable wind profiles supporting updraft organization with any updrafts that are able to mature. Hail will be the primary severe risk with the initial development, although strong downdrafts are possible as well. There is some potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments as the storms move eastward during the evening, but the narrowness of the warm sector will likely lead to a more elevated storm character while also contributing to decreasing updraft intensity. Even so, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen as these storms move eastward into south-central KS/north-central OK. Consequently, there could be a short duration where surface-based storms interact with this strengthening low-level flow, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk. As mentioned in the synopsis, the eastward progression dryline will likely slow (or maybe even stall) during the late afternoon into the evening. It is then expected to continue eastward/southeastward overnight as its parent low moves eastward. Additional storm development is anticipated along this boundary from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country once it begins to move eastward again (03Z-06Z) . A few stronger storms are possible, particularly in TX Hill Country where buoyancy will be greatest, with an attendant threat for large hail and/or damaging gusts. Thereafter, undercutting nature of the dryline will result in a largely anafrontal storm character and limited severe risk. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from its initial position over the Lower CO River Valley/western AZ eastward across the Southwest and then more northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by the early afternoon. A northeastward progression will continue thereafter, with the wave moving into the Lower MO Valley during the evening and Mid MS Valley overnight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with 70-80 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across the southern Plains throughout the day and across the Lower MO Valley and Mid MS Valley overnight. Progression of this shortwave will help induce deep surface cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. By Sunday afternoon, a sub-985 mb low will likely be over the southern CO/KS border vicinity, with a dryline arcing southeastward from this low across the OK Panhandle and then southward across western OK and into southwest TX. This low is then forecast to move eastward across KS, with the an attendant dryline only making minor eastward progress until after midnight when more eastward push is anticipated again. ...Central/Southern Plains... General consensus within the guidance places low 50s dewpoints over western OK early Sunday morning, with higher dewpoints still south of the Red River. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely still be along the Lower TX Coast. A robust mass response is anticipated, with strong low-level flow contributing to notable moisture return. Even so, dewpoints will likely still be in the low to mid 50s across western OK as the dryline moves into the region during the afternoon. Additionally, early period precipitation and widespread cloud cover will temper heating, especially from central portions of KS and OK eastward/northeastward. As a result, while the overall upper pattern and resulting wind fields match a typical southern/central Plains severe event, the lack of better low-level moisture will act as a major limiting factor. Initiation appears most probable across southwest KS during the late afternoon (around 21Z) near the surface low. Slightly deeper boundary-layer mixing is possible in this area, and dewpoints are only expected to be in the 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent (both from the approaching shortwave trough and more mesoscale near the low and dryline) should be sufficient for storm development. Vertical wind profiles in this area support storm organization and an initially discrete supercell mode is anticipated. Initiation farther south across western OK and northwest TX is more uncertain, owing to the persistence of warm low to mid-level temperatures and weaker large-scale ascent. As such, a more conditional potential exists in these areas with favorable wind profiles supporting updraft organization with any updrafts that are able to mature. Hail will be the primary severe risk with the initial development, although strong downdrafts are possible as well. There is some potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments as the storms move eastward during the evening, but the narrowness of the warm sector will likely lead to a more elevated storm character while also contributing to decreasing updraft intensity. Even so, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen as these storms move eastward into south-central KS/north-central OK. Consequently, there could be a short duration where surface-based storms interact with this strengthening low-level flow, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk. As mentioned in the synopsis, the eastward progression dryline will likely slow (or maybe even stall) during the late afternoon into the evening. It is then expected to continue eastward/southeastward overnight as its parent low moves eastward. Additional storm development is anticipated along this boundary from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country once it begins to move eastward again (03Z-06Z) . A few stronger storms are possible, particularly in TX Hill Country where buoyancy will be greatest, with an attendant threat for large hail and/or damaging gusts. Thereafter, undercutting nature of the dryline will result in a largely anafrontal storm character and limited severe risk. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from its initial position over the Lower CO River Valley/western AZ eastward across the Southwest and then more northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by the early afternoon. A northeastward progression will continue thereafter, with the wave moving into the Lower MO Valley during the evening and Mid MS Valley overnight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with 70-80 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across the southern Plains throughout the day and across the Lower MO Valley and Mid MS Valley overnight. Progression of this shortwave will help induce deep surface cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. By Sunday afternoon, a sub-985 mb low will likely be over the southern CO/KS border vicinity, with a dryline arcing southeastward from this low across the OK Panhandle and then southward across western OK and into southwest TX. This low is then forecast to move eastward across KS, with the an attendant dryline only making minor eastward progress until after midnight when more eastward push is anticipated again. ...Central/Southern Plains... General consensus within the guidance places low 50s dewpoints over western OK early Sunday morning, with higher dewpoints still south of the Red River. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely still be along the Lower TX Coast. A robust mass response is anticipated, with strong low-level flow contributing to notable moisture return. Even so, dewpoints will likely still be in the low to mid 50s across western OK as the dryline moves into the region during the afternoon. Additionally, early period precipitation and widespread cloud cover will temper heating, especially from central portions of KS and OK eastward/northeastward. As a result, while the overall upper pattern and resulting wind fields match a typical southern/central Plains severe event, the lack of better low-level moisture will act as a major limiting factor. Initiation appears most probable across southwest KS during the late afternoon (around 21Z) near the surface low. Slightly deeper boundary-layer mixing is possible in this area, and dewpoints are only expected to be in the 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent (both from the approaching shortwave trough and more mesoscale near the low and dryline) should be sufficient for storm development. Vertical wind profiles in this area support storm organization and an initially discrete supercell mode is anticipated. Initiation farther south across western OK and northwest TX is more uncertain, owing to the persistence of warm low to mid-level temperatures and weaker large-scale ascent. As such, a more conditional potential exists in these areas with favorable wind profiles supporting updraft organization with any updrafts that are able to mature. Hail will be the primary severe risk with the initial development, although strong downdrafts are possible as well. There is some potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments as the storms move eastward during the evening, but the narrowness of the warm sector will likely lead to a more elevated storm character while also contributing to decreasing updraft intensity. Even so, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen as these storms move eastward into south-central KS/north-central OK. Consequently, there could be a short duration where surface-based storms interact with this strengthening low-level flow, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk. As mentioned in the synopsis, the eastward progression dryline will likely slow (or maybe even stall) during the late afternoon into the evening. It is then expected to continue eastward/southeastward overnight as its parent low moves eastward. Additional storm development is anticipated along this boundary from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country once it begins to move eastward again (03Z-06Z) . A few stronger storms are possible, particularly in TX Hill Country where buoyancy will be greatest, with an attendant threat for large hail and/or damaging gusts. Thereafter, undercutting nature of the dryline will result in a largely anafrontal storm character and limited severe risk. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from its initial position over the Lower CO River Valley/western AZ eastward across the Southwest and then more northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by the early afternoon. A northeastward progression will continue thereafter, with the wave moving into the Lower MO Valley during the evening and Mid MS Valley overnight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with 70-80 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across the southern Plains throughout the day and across the Lower MO Valley and Mid MS Valley overnight. Progression of this shortwave will help induce deep surface cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. By Sunday afternoon, a sub-985 mb low will likely be over the southern CO/KS border vicinity, with a dryline arcing southeastward from this low across the OK Panhandle and then southward across western OK and into southwest TX. This low is then forecast to move eastward across KS, with the an attendant dryline only making minor eastward progress until after midnight when more eastward push is anticipated again. ...Central/Southern Plains... General consensus within the guidance places low 50s dewpoints over western OK early Sunday morning, with higher dewpoints still south of the Red River. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely still be along the Lower TX Coast. A robust mass response is anticipated, with strong low-level flow contributing to notable moisture return. Even so, dewpoints will likely still be in the low to mid 50s across western OK as the dryline moves into the region during the afternoon. Additionally, early period precipitation and widespread cloud cover will temper heating, especially from central portions of KS and OK eastward/northeastward. As a result, while the overall upper pattern and resulting wind fields match a typical southern/central Plains severe event, the lack of better low-level moisture will act as a major limiting factor. Initiation appears most probable across southwest KS during the late afternoon (around 21Z) near the surface low. Slightly deeper boundary-layer mixing is possible in this area, and dewpoints are only expected to be in the 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent (both from the approaching shortwave trough and more mesoscale near the low and dryline) should be sufficient for storm development. Vertical wind profiles in this area support storm organization and an initially discrete supercell mode is anticipated. Initiation farther south across western OK and northwest TX is more uncertain, owing to the persistence of warm low to mid-level temperatures and weaker large-scale ascent. As such, a more conditional potential exists in these areas with favorable wind profiles supporting updraft organization with any updrafts that are able to mature. Hail will be the primary severe risk with the initial development, although strong downdrafts are possible as well. There is some potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments as the storms move eastward during the evening, but the narrowness of the warm sector will likely lead to a more elevated storm character while also contributing to decreasing updraft intensity. Even so, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen as these storms move eastward into south-central KS/north-central OK. Consequently, there could be a short duration where surface-based storms interact with this strengthening low-level flow, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk. As mentioned in the synopsis, the eastward progression dryline will likely slow (or maybe even stall) during the late afternoon into the evening. It is then expected to continue eastward/southeastward overnight as its parent low moves eastward. Additional storm development is anticipated along this boundary from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country once it begins to move eastward again (03Z-06Z) . A few stronger storms are possible, particularly in TX Hill Country where buoyancy will be greatest, with an attendant threat for large hail and/or damaging gusts. Thereafter, undercutting nature of the dryline will result in a largely anafrontal storm character and limited severe risk. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from its initial position over the Lower CO River Valley/western AZ eastward across the Southwest and then more northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by the early afternoon. A northeastward progression will continue thereafter, with the wave moving into the Lower MO Valley during the evening and Mid MS Valley overnight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with 70-80 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across the southern Plains throughout the day and across the Lower MO Valley and Mid MS Valley overnight. Progression of this shortwave will help induce deep surface cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. By Sunday afternoon, a sub-985 mb low will likely be over the southern CO/KS border vicinity, with a dryline arcing southeastward from this low across the OK Panhandle and then southward across western OK and into southwest TX. This low is then forecast to move eastward across KS, with the an attendant dryline only making minor eastward progress until after midnight when more eastward push is anticipated again. ...Central/Southern Plains... General consensus within the guidance places low 50s dewpoints over western OK early Sunday morning, with higher dewpoints still south of the Red River. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely still be along the Lower TX Coast. A robust mass response is anticipated, with strong low-level flow contributing to notable moisture return. Even so, dewpoints will likely still be in the low to mid 50s across western OK as the dryline moves into the region during the afternoon. Additionally, early period precipitation and widespread cloud cover will temper heating, especially from central portions of KS and OK eastward/northeastward. As a result, while the overall upper pattern and resulting wind fields match a typical southern/central Plains severe event, the lack of better low-level moisture will act as a major limiting factor. Initiation appears most probable across southwest KS during the late afternoon (around 21Z) near the surface low. Slightly deeper boundary-layer mixing is possible in this area, and dewpoints are only expected to be in the 40s. However, cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent (both from the approaching shortwave trough and more mesoscale near the low and dryline) should be sufficient for storm development. Vertical wind profiles in this area support storm organization and an initially discrete supercell mode is anticipated. Initiation farther south across western OK and northwest TX is more uncertain, owing to the persistence of warm low to mid-level temperatures and weaker large-scale ascent. As such, a more conditional potential exists in these areas with favorable wind profiles supporting updraft organization with any updrafts that are able to mature. Hail will be the primary severe risk with the initial development, although strong downdrafts are possible as well. There is some potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments as the storms move eastward during the evening, but the narrowness of the warm sector will likely lead to a more elevated storm character while also contributing to decreasing updraft intensity. Even so, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen as these storms move eastward into south-central KS/north-central OK. Consequently, there could be a short duration where surface-based storms interact with this strengthening low-level flow, resulting in a low-probability tornado risk. As mentioned in the synopsis, the eastward progression dryline will likely slow (or maybe even stall) during the late afternoon into the evening. It is then expected to continue eastward/southeastward overnight as its parent low moves eastward. Additional storm development is anticipated along this boundary from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country once it begins to move eastward again (03Z-06Z) . A few stronger storms are possible, particularly in TX Hill Country where buoyancy will be greatest, with an attendant threat for large hail and/or damaging gusts. Thereafter, undercutting nature of the dryline will result in a largely anafrontal storm character and limited severe risk. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 Read more