Severe Storms

MD 0288 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 0288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Maine and New Hampshire Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 232157Z - 240100Z SUMMARY...Mixed precipitation should continue across portions of northern New England over the next few hours. Freezing rain is also possible, with ice accretion rates exceeding 0.05 inches/3 hrs in some spots. DISCUSSION...A surface low, located just off the coast of NJ, is poised to traverse the coastline through the evening as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Strong surface-700 mb warm-air/moisture advection is underway along the New England coast, promoting widespread wintry precipitation. Snow should remain the predominant precipitation type across northern parts of ME and NH. However, temperatures are rising above the freezing mark in the lowest couple hundred mb, allowing for mixed wintry precipitation to occur. Along and just north of surface freezing line, ice accumulations have been reported, and ice accretion rates of up to 0.05 inches/3 hrs, as well as sleet, are possible where rainfall is heaviest. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX... LAT...LON 43177049 42887137 42987202 43627207 43717125 44276974 44196909 43776958 43177049 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 23 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 23 21:07:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... ...FL Keys... Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys, so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and overnight. ...Southern GA into Northeast FL... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential very low. ...Southern CA Coast... Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now. However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region. Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...South FL... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern tip of FL into the Keys. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. The threat of a strong wind gust or brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass. Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions. While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area, but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more