Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Discussion... Southern-stream short-wave trough should advance across the southeastern US during the day, with the primary corridor of large-scale forcing expected to shift off the southeast Atlantic Coast by late afternoon. Early in the period, strong LLJ will focus over the middle Atlantic from eastern NC into eastern VA. This feature will translate rapidly downstream into southern New England during the afternoon, in response to a northern-stream short-wave trough over NY. Otherwise, westerly deep-layer flow is expected across prefrontal portions of the southern FL Peninsula through peak heating. Early this morning, considerable amount of convection is observed within the warm-advection zone from off the Carolina Coast into the southern middle Atlantic. While onshore flow is noted across the coastal Carolinas, any noteworthy buoyancy remains offshore where lightning is concentrated within deeper updrafts. With time, boundary-layer conditions should gradually destabilize across eastern NC, such that surface-based buoyancy should be noted by mid-late morning. However, as this occurs, low-level winds will veer, and deeper convergence is expected to shift offshore. Will maintain MRGL risk for the potential for locally damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado with early-day convection. Farther south, an expansive MCS developed across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. This complex of storms has moved across most of south FL and disrupted the boundary layer across all areas north of the Straits. Even so, latest model guidance suggests boundary layer will recover by late morning as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s. Ample deep-layer flow/shear will persist across south FL, and convection that evolves within this veered flow regime may exhibit some organization. Locally damaging winds, along with a low risk for tornadoes, is expected with prefrontal convection. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Discussion... Southern-stream short-wave trough should advance across the southeastern US during the day, with the primary corridor of large-scale forcing expected to shift off the southeast Atlantic Coast by late afternoon. Early in the period, strong LLJ will focus over the middle Atlantic from eastern NC into eastern VA. This feature will translate rapidly downstream into southern New England during the afternoon, in response to a northern-stream short-wave trough over NY. Otherwise, westerly deep-layer flow is expected across prefrontal portions of the southern FL Peninsula through peak heating. Early this morning, considerable amount of convection is observed within the warm-advection zone from off the Carolina Coast into the southern middle Atlantic. While onshore flow is noted across the coastal Carolinas, any noteworthy buoyancy remains offshore where lightning is concentrated within deeper updrafts. With time, boundary-layer conditions should gradually destabilize across eastern NC, such that surface-based buoyancy should be noted by mid-late morning. However, as this occurs, low-level winds will veer, and deeper convergence is expected to shift offshore. Will maintain MRGL risk for the potential for locally damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado with early-day convection. Farther south, an expansive MCS developed across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. This complex of storms has moved across most of south FL and disrupted the boundary layer across all areas north of the Straits. Even so, latest model guidance suggests boundary layer will recover by late morning as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s. Ample deep-layer flow/shear will persist across south FL, and convection that evolves within this veered flow regime may exhibit some organization. Locally damaging winds, along with a low risk for tornadoes, is expected with prefrontal convection. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW EYW TO 25 ESE EYW TO 30 ENE MTH TO 20 E MIA TO 60 ESE PBI. ..GRAMS..03/23/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ651-671-GMZ052-053-072-073-074-230640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 58 TORNADO FL CW 230005Z - 230700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 58 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 805 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms, along with some line-preceding supercells, will initially approach the Florida Keys, and eventually the far southern Florida Peninsula later this evening. Within a favorably moist environment amid strong deep-layer winds, these storms will pose a waterspout/tornado risk aside from wind damage. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Key West FL to 70 miles east southeast of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 WSW EYW TO 10 SE EYW TO 45 NNE MTH TO 20 SW PBI. ..BROYLES..03/23/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-086-230540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MIAMI-DADE AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-042-043-052-053-054-072-073-074-075- 230540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND BUTTONWOOD SOUND Read more

MD 0284 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 58... FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0913 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Areas affected...South Florida and the Florida Keys Concerning...Tornado Watch 58... Valid 230213Z - 230415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue over the Florida Keys, and is expected to develop and increase over the southern Florida Peninsula over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Key West shows a cluster of strong to severe storms over the waters to the north of and just south of Key West. Well-organized and strongly rotating supercells appear to be ongoing within this cluster. The cluster will move eastward across the Florida Keys vicinity over the next couple of hours. Additional storms are expected to develop across the southern Florida Peninsula. According to the RAP, MLCAPE in the Florida Keys is generally near or above 1000 J/kg, with somewhat weaker instability in south Florida. The WSR-88D VWP at Key West still has an impressive shear environment, with 0-6 km shear at 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This should continue support a tornado threat with supercells, and a strong tornado will be possible with the any supercell that becomes intense. A wind-damage and isolated large hail will also likely accompany the stronger storms. If a line segment can become organized, then the wind-damage threat will likely increase as well. ..Broyles.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24898228 24448240 24318183 24678078 25038026 25388021 25648040 25738076 25748134 25628177 25368204 24898228 Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 WSW EYW TO 20 NNW EYW TO 30 NNW MTH TO 20 NE APF. ..BROYLES..03/23/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-021-086-087-230440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE MONROE AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-072-073-074- 075-657-230440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND BUTTONWOOD SOUND Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WNW EYW TO 30 N EYW TO 45 NW MTH TO 15 S APF. ..BROYLES..03/23/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-021-086-087-230340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE MONROE AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-034-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-055- 072-073-074-075-656-657-676-230340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND BUTTONWOOD SOUND Read more

MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Areas affected...Florida Keys...South Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222329Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A tornado, wind and hail threat may develop over the next couple of hours over the Florida Keys and south Florida. Weather watch issuance may become necessary this evening. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave trough over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico with a distinct vorticity max approaching south Florida. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the vorticity max is aiding the development of a squall line about 90 statute miles to the west of Key West. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F across the Florida Keys. Temperatures in the upper 70s F are yielding MLCAPE in the 600 to 800 J/kg range according to the RAP. The WSR-88D VWP at Key West is impressive with 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2, and a clockwise curved hodograph. This will likely support a severe threat, as a squall-line approaches and then moves across the Florida Keys this evening. A tornado threat will be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the line, and with supercells if discrete cells can develop ahead of the line. A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat is also expected to accompany the squall-line as it moves across the Florida Keys, most likely during the 02Z and 05Z timeframe. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 25888002 25938032 25878053 25688099 25498171 25338241 25078276 24788290 24458283 24208256 24148191 24388096 24768019 25287985 25717983 25888002 Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/23/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-021-086-087-230240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE MONROE AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-034-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-055- 072-073-074-075-656-657-676-230240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND BUTTONWOOD SOUND Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/23/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-021-086-087-230140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE MONROE AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-034-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-055- 072-073-074-075-656-657-676-230140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND BUTTONWOOD SOUND Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more