Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Discussion... Southern-stream short-wave trough should advance across the southeastern US during the day, with the primary corridor of large-scale forcing expected to shift off the southeast Atlantic Coast by late afternoon. Early in the period, strong LLJ will focus over the middle Atlantic from eastern NC into eastern VA. This feature will translate rapidly downstream into southern New England during the afternoon, in response to a northern-stream short-wave trough over NY. Otherwise, westerly deep-layer flow is expected across prefrontal portions of the southern FL Peninsula through peak heating. Early this morning, considerable amount of convection is observed within the warm-advection zone from off the Carolina Coast into the southern middle Atlantic. While onshore flow is noted across the coastal Carolinas, any noteworthy buoyancy remains offshore where lightning is concentrated within deeper updrafts. With time, boundary-layer conditions should gradually destabilize across eastern NC, such that surface-based buoyancy should be noted by mid-late morning. However, as this occurs, low-level winds will veer, and deeper convergence is expected to shift offshore. Will maintain MRGL risk for the potential for locally damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado with early-day convection. Farther south, an expansive MCS developed across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. This complex of storms has moved across most of south FL and disrupted the boundary layer across all areas north of the Straits. Even so, latest model guidance suggests boundary layer will recover by late morning as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s. Ample deep-layer flow/shear will persist across south FL, and convection that evolves within this veered flow regime may exhibit some organization. Locally damaging winds, along with a low risk for tornadoes, is expected with prefrontal convection. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Discussion... Southern-stream short-wave trough should advance across the southeastern US during the day, with the primary corridor of large-scale forcing expected to shift off the southeast Atlantic Coast by late afternoon. Early in the period, strong LLJ will focus over the middle Atlantic from eastern NC into eastern VA. This feature will translate rapidly downstream into southern New England during the afternoon, in response to a northern-stream short-wave trough over NY. Otherwise, westerly deep-layer flow is expected across prefrontal portions of the southern FL Peninsula through peak heating. Early this morning, considerable amount of convection is observed within the warm-advection zone from off the Carolina Coast into the southern middle Atlantic. While onshore flow is noted across the coastal Carolinas, any noteworthy buoyancy remains offshore where lightning is concentrated within deeper updrafts. With time, boundary-layer conditions should gradually destabilize across eastern NC, such that surface-based buoyancy should be noted by mid-late morning. However, as this occurs, low-level winds will veer, and deeper convergence is expected to shift offshore. Will maintain MRGL risk for the potential for locally damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado with early-day convection. Farther south, an expansive MCS developed across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. This complex of storms has moved across most of south FL and disrupted the boundary layer across all areas north of the Straits. Even so, latest model guidance suggests boundary layer will recover by late morning as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s. Ample deep-layer flow/shear will persist across south FL, and convection that evolves within this veered flow regime may exhibit some organization. Locally damaging winds, along with a low risk for tornadoes, is expected with prefrontal convection. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Discussion... Southern-stream short-wave trough should advance across the southeastern US during the day, with the primary corridor of large-scale forcing expected to shift off the southeast Atlantic Coast by late afternoon. Early in the period, strong LLJ will focus over the middle Atlantic from eastern NC into eastern VA. This feature will translate rapidly downstream into southern New England during the afternoon, in response to a northern-stream short-wave trough over NY. Otherwise, westerly deep-layer flow is expected across prefrontal portions of the southern FL Peninsula through peak heating. Early this morning, considerable amount of convection is observed within the warm-advection zone from off the Carolina Coast into the southern middle Atlantic. While onshore flow is noted across the coastal Carolinas, any noteworthy buoyancy remains offshore where lightning is concentrated within deeper updrafts. With time, boundary-layer conditions should gradually destabilize across eastern NC, such that surface-based buoyancy should be noted by mid-late morning. However, as this occurs, low-level winds will veer, and deeper convergence is expected to shift offshore. Will maintain MRGL risk for the potential for locally damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado with early-day convection. Farther south, an expansive MCS developed across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. This complex of storms has moved across most of south FL and disrupted the boundary layer across all areas north of the Straits. Even so, latest model guidance suggests boundary layer will recover by late morning as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s. Ample deep-layer flow/shear will persist across south FL, and convection that evolves within this veered flow regime may exhibit some organization. Locally damaging winds, along with a low risk for tornadoes, is expected with prefrontal convection. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 Read more