Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow will remain in place over the CONUS supporting periodic fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. The deep trough over the central US will slowly move eastward while strong northwest flow aloft lingers behind it. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Southwest and slowly weaken through midweek. Shortwave ridging will intensify over the Southwest/southern Plains mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the West Coast. This trough will then move onshore this weekend into early next week. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains supporting gusty winds and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains and Rio Grande Valley... Amplified northwest flow is expected to linger over the southern Great Plains through mid-late week. As the post-frontal air mass slowly modifies, dry downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM and west TX. Daily RH minimums of 20-25% appear likely along with increasing winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible D3/Wed. Shortwave ridging is expected to develop D4/Thur-D5/Friday ahead of the next mid-level trough forecast to deepen off the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow aloft is expected to remain fairly stout (45-55 kt) aiding the development of a lee trough. Gusty west/southwest winds are likely over eastern NM and parts of west TX. The low-level air mass should also continue to dry with minimum RH values of 15-20% likely. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely, especially D5/Friday as meteorological conditions overlap drying fuels. Confidence remains modest but medium-range and ensemble guidance continue to show potential for an active period of critical fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Southwest flow is forecast to quickly increase trough the weekend as the Pacific trough deepens. Gradual deepening of the lee trough into a surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will bolster southwest surface winds through the weekend and into early next week. Coincident with warming temperatures and an increasingly dry air mass, this will likely support several days of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. However, due to model discrepancies in, exact timing and magnitude of this remains unclear. Will maintain broad 40% probabilities until more clear solutions become evident. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow will remain in place over the CONUS supporting periodic fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. The deep trough over the central US will slowly move eastward while strong northwest flow aloft lingers behind it. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Southwest and slowly weaken through midweek. Shortwave ridging will intensify over the Southwest/southern Plains mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the West Coast. This trough will then move onshore this weekend into early next week. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains supporting gusty winds and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains and Rio Grande Valley... Amplified northwest flow is expected to linger over the southern Great Plains through mid-late week. As the post-frontal air mass slowly modifies, dry downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM and west TX. Daily RH minimums of 20-25% appear likely along with increasing winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible D3/Wed. Shortwave ridging is expected to develop D4/Thur-D5/Friday ahead of the next mid-level trough forecast to deepen off the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow aloft is expected to remain fairly stout (45-55 kt) aiding the development of a lee trough. Gusty west/southwest winds are likely over eastern NM and parts of west TX. The low-level air mass should also continue to dry with minimum RH values of 15-20% likely. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely, especially D5/Friday as meteorological conditions overlap drying fuels. Confidence remains modest but medium-range and ensemble guidance continue to show potential for an active period of critical fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Southwest flow is forecast to quickly increase trough the weekend as the Pacific trough deepens. Gradual deepening of the lee trough into a surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will bolster southwest surface winds through the weekend and into early next week. Coincident with warming temperatures and an increasingly dry air mass, this will likely support several days of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. However, due to model discrepancies in, exact timing and magnitude of this remains unclear. Will maintain broad 40% probabilities until more clear solutions become evident. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BPT TO 50 SE LFK TO 45 WNW POE TO IER TO 15 W MLU TO 30 SSW LLQ TO 10 SSW LLQ. ..KERR..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-043-252140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DREW LAC003-011-019-021-025-035-041-043-049-053-059-065-067-069-073- 079-083-107-115-123-127-252140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN TXC199-241-351-361-403-252140- Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BPT TO 50 SE LFK TO 45 WNW POE TO IER TO 15 W MLU TO 30 SSW LLQ TO 10 SSW LLQ. ..KERR..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-043-252140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DREW LAC003-011-019-021-025-035-041-043-049-053-059-065-067-069-073- 079-083-107-115-123-127-252140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN TXC199-241-351-361-403-252140- Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BPT TO 50 SE LFK TO 45 WNW POE TO IER TO 15 W MLU TO 30 SSW LLQ TO 10 SSW LLQ. ..KERR..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-043-252140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DREW LAC003-011-019-021-025-035-041-043-049-053-059-065-067-069-073- 079-083-107-115-123-127-252140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN TXC199-241-351-361-403-252140- Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BPT TO 50 SE LFK TO 45 WNW POE TO IER TO 15 W MLU TO 30 SSW LLQ TO 10 SSW LLQ. ..KERR..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-043-252140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DREW LAC003-011-019-021-025-035-041-043-049-053-059-065-067-069-073- 079-083-107-115-123-127-252140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN TXC199-241-351-361-403-252140- Read more

WW 61 TORNADO AR LA TX 251845Z - 260100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana Southeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify over southeast Texas and western Louisiana ahead of a cold front. Strong winds aloft will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south southwest of Fort Polk LA to 60 miles east northeast of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...ArkLaMiss Region... Recent surface analysis places a low east of TXK, with a cold front extending southward through far northwest LA and then back southwestward to 30 miles east of HOU. Storms along this boundary have weakened, while strengthening within a pre-frontal confluence band extending from north-central LA into the TX Golden Triangle. As noted by the 18Z LCH sounding and recent mesoanalysis, much of the earlier convective inhibition has eroded, although overall buoyancy and EL heights still remain limited. Overall forecast remains unchanged, with the ongoing line of storms expected to intensify later this afternoon under the influence of increasing ascent (both from the front as well as large-scale attendant to the approaching upper trough). Limited buoyancy and storm depth will remain limiting factors, but very strong low-level shear will support embedded supercells and bowing segments with any more mature convection. Potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) will continues within this line this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watch #61 was recently issued across southeast Arkansas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeast Texas to address this near-term threat. ...Mid/Lower MO Valley... As discussed in recently issued MCD #301, though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. Read more