Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 27 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 27 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0311 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...northern FLORIDA Peninsula...southeastern Georgia...eastern South Carolina...far southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272022Z - 272215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase this afternoon with potential for instances of severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has begun in eastern Georgia near a surface boundary that extends from the Carolinas southward into the eastern Florida Panhandle. CAMs continue to suggest this thunderstorm activity will increase into the afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected across much of the region. Afternoon heating has been slow, given mid-to upper level cloud cover and slow eroding of stable air behind morning convection. Surface objective analysis indicates MLCIN has weakened with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE across South Carolina into Georgia ahead of the boundary. This trend is further confirmed by thunderstorm development on radar. Currently, deep layer shear is strongest across the northern Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia. As the front shifts eastward this afternoon, stronger mid-level flow will spread northward, with deep layer shear increasing to the north as a result. This will support potential for a few more robust thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Given the slow air mass recovery and potential for messy storm mode with multi-cell clusters, a watch is unlikely to be needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31138337 32258262 32988215 34258099 35118004 35207994 35057892 34787854 34447836 34237827 34057827 33567853 33117900 32538007 32188051 31928076 31518105 31358147 31158197 30938228 30708268 30408289 30138320 30128368 30278377 31138337 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271852Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a few strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts appears likely to increase by 4-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Beneath cold air (including 500 mb temperatures around -23 to -26 C) associated with mid-level troughing shifting across the southern Great Plains, a deepening well-mixed boundary-layer continues to evolve with daytime heating across the Edwards Plateau into Hill Country. Near the leading edge of the stronger differential surface heating, where surface dew points are still as high as the mid/upper 40s F, destabilization is contributing to deepening convective development, within moderately sheared westerly to west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. With additional insolation, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 500 J/kg. As the sharp trailing flank of the mid-level cold pool begins to progress east-northeast of the Permian Basin, strongest instability is forecast to shift toward the I-35 corridor of central Texas through 21-23Z, where/when initiation and intensification of thunderstorm activity appear increasingly probable, perhaps aided by ascent associated with low-level warm advection. Given the evolving thermodynamic profiles and favorable deep-layer shear, a few supercell structures may develop and pose a risk for producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts through early evening, before weakening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32339814 31519735 30239760 30089850 32119908 32339814 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more