Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more