Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk. ...Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by 12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH Valley during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater forcing favors isolated storm coverage. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk. ...Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by 12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH Valley during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater forcing favors isolated storm coverage. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk. ...Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by 12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH Valley during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater forcing favors isolated storm coverage. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk. ...Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by 12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH Valley during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater forcing favors isolated storm coverage. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk. ...Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by 12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH Valley during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater forcing favors isolated storm coverage. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk. ...Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by 12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH Valley during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater forcing favors isolated storm coverage. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024 Read more

MD 0312 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0852 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Areas affected...eastern iowa and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300152Z - 300315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening with some hail possible. DISCUSSION...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. Instability was quite limited on the 00Z DVN RAOB. However, continued warm air advection has likely increased instability and moistened the column between 850 and 700mb over the past few hours. Therefore, despite the minimal instability, the moderate isentropic ascent associated with a ~40 knot low-level jet has proven sufficient for storms in the region. Given the strong unidirectional shear in the cloud-bearing layer, a few stronger storms with rotating updrafts are possible. Some hail to near 1 inch is possible, but expect the majority of hail to remain sub-severe. Isentropic ascent is expected to weaken in the next few hours as 850-700mb flow veers. This should bring an end to the marginal hail threat by late evening. ..Bentley/Goss.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41279313 41959246 42419107 42198898 41728788 40968764 40528833 40548968 40639156 40719245 40829282 41279313 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail remains possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for a few robust storms across the Midwest remain. Moisture is gradually advancing north across the mid MS Valley per 50F surface dew points now north of I70 in MO. While 00z sounding from DVN exhibited very steep midlevel lapse rates, only 0.67 inch PW was observed on the sounding. Instability should increase over the next several hours such that elevated thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage, initially over eastern IA. Latest radar/lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over southeast IA and this activity will spread east within the warm advection zone into northern IL. Strongest updrafts may generate hail that could approach severe levels, most likely later this evening as buoyancy increases. Even so, these robust storms will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail remains possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for a few robust storms across the Midwest remain. Moisture is gradually advancing north across the mid MS Valley per 50F surface dew points now north of I70 in MO. While 00z sounding from DVN exhibited very steep midlevel lapse rates, only 0.67 inch PW was observed on the sounding. Instability should increase over the next several hours such that elevated thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage, initially over eastern IA. Latest radar/lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over southeast IA and this activity will spread east within the warm advection zone into northern IL. Strongest updrafts may generate hail that could approach severe levels, most likely later this evening as buoyancy increases. Even so, these robust storms will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail remains possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for a few robust storms across the Midwest remain. Moisture is gradually advancing north across the mid MS Valley per 50F surface dew points now north of I70 in MO. While 00z sounding from DVN exhibited very steep midlevel lapse rates, only 0.67 inch PW was observed on the sounding. Instability should increase over the next several hours such that elevated thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage, initially over eastern IA. Latest radar/lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over southeast IA and this activity will spread east within the warm advection zone into northern IL. Strongest updrafts may generate hail that could approach severe levels, most likely later this evening as buoyancy increases. Even so, these robust storms will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail remains possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for a few robust storms across the Midwest remain. Moisture is gradually advancing north across the mid MS Valley per 50F surface dew points now north of I70 in MO. While 00z sounding from DVN exhibited very steep midlevel lapse rates, only 0.67 inch PW was observed on the sounding. Instability should increase over the next several hours such that elevated thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage, initially over eastern IA. Latest radar/lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over southeast IA and this activity will spread east within the warm advection zone into northern IL. Strongest updrafts may generate hail that could approach severe levels, most likely later this evening as buoyancy increases. Even so, these robust storms will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail remains possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for a few robust storms across the Midwest remain. Moisture is gradually advancing north across the mid MS Valley per 50F surface dew points now north of I70 in MO. While 00z sounding from DVN exhibited very steep midlevel lapse rates, only 0.67 inch PW was observed on the sounding. Instability should increase over the next several hours such that elevated thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage, initially over eastern IA. Latest radar/lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over southeast IA and this activity will spread east within the warm advection zone into northern IL. Strongest updrafts may generate hail that could approach severe levels, most likely later this evening as buoyancy increases. Even so, these robust storms will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 03/30/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 29 23:51:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 29 23:51:02 UTC 2024.