Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Ohio Valley into West Virginia this afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will remain dominated by troughing related to a synoptic-scale cyclone -- centered initially off the CA coast about 150 nm west of SFO. The cyclone will dig southeastward through the period, with its center remaining just offshore, but elongating northeastward as several vorticity lobes pivot into the northeastern quadrant of the gyre. Meanwhile, a northern-stream trough now over southern Yukon and northern BC will dig southward to the inland Pacific Northwest. This will cause a phasing of northern and southern streams into a more full-latitude, positively tilted trough by the end of this period and early day 2, from the northern Rockies across southern CA, to Pacific waters well west of northern Baja. Associated cold air aloft and marginal (but adequate) low/middle-level moisture will support isolated thunderstorm potential over much of CA and northern/western NV. Downstream, southwest flow aloft will spread across most of the Intermountain West and Rockies, with several embedded/low-amplitude perturbations -- one of which may contribute enough instability aloft to support isolated thunder over the central High Plains. East of the Rockies, largely zonal mid/upper flow is forecast, with the most convectively consequential perturbation now evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI, Lake Michigan, IL, and IN. This feature is somewhat elongated in the flow, with western and eastern components -- a general geometry that should be maintained as it shifts eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Surface analysis at 11Z revealed a frontal-wave low over northwestern IL, with cold front southwestward over western OK and the TX Panhandle. A warm front was drawn east-southeastward from the low near an IND-CVG-HTS line, to a weak low between LYH-CHO. Though initially slowed somewhat by outflow from morning/midday precip over the Ohio Valley region, the warm front should advance northeastward into parts of OH and western PA today, as the main low moves eastward to eastern OH by 00Z. At that time, the cold front should extend from the low over southern parts of IN/IL/MO, to what by then should be a stationary to warm front across northern OK into southeastern CO. ...Ohio Valley and WV... An ongoing area of precip and isolated, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms is apparent in radar animations from WI southeastward to OH, in the combined zones of large-scale ascent related to warm advection and DCVA (preceding the mid/upper perturbation). This activity and its cloud shield are expected to proceed eastward through the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Favorable boundary-layer destabilization is most probable behind that activity, as the western lobe of the mid/upper perturbation approaches and passes over the area. Clearing, insolation, theta-e advection, and mass convergence near the cold front/low should overcome remaining MLCINH by mid/late afternoon, supporting widely scattered thunderstorms. Activity should move eastward to southeastward, offering isolated severe hail and damaging gusts. Though low-level moisture still will be on the weak side, and tempered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 40s to low 50s F by that time, combining with steep low/middle-level lapse rates to enable 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The well-mixed boundary layer will support strong to marginally severe downdrafts with the most intense cells. Also, and despite somewhat veered/southwesterly surface winds, low-level and deep shear still will support some supercell potential with large hail. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes over the region. Activity should weaken east of the higher terrain this evening, as it moves over a progressively deeper, more-stable boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Ohio Valley into West Virginia this afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will remain dominated by troughing related to a synoptic-scale cyclone -- centered initially off the CA coast about 150 nm west of SFO. The cyclone will dig southeastward through the period, with its center remaining just offshore, but elongating northeastward as several vorticity lobes pivot into the northeastern quadrant of the gyre. Meanwhile, a northern-stream trough now over southern Yukon and northern BC will dig southward to the inland Pacific Northwest. This will cause a phasing of northern and southern streams into a more full-latitude, positively tilted trough by the end of this period and early day 2, from the northern Rockies across southern CA, to Pacific waters well west of northern Baja. Associated cold air aloft and marginal (but adequate) low/middle-level moisture will support isolated thunderstorm potential over much of CA and northern/western NV. Downstream, southwest flow aloft will spread across most of the Intermountain West and Rockies, with several embedded/low-amplitude perturbations -- one of which may contribute enough instability aloft to support isolated thunder over the central High Plains. East of the Rockies, largely zonal mid/upper flow is forecast, with the most convectively consequential perturbation now evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI, Lake Michigan, IL, and IN. This feature is somewhat elongated in the flow, with western and eastern components -- a general geometry that should be maintained as it shifts eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Surface analysis at 11Z revealed a frontal-wave low over northwestern IL, with cold front southwestward over western OK and the TX Panhandle. A warm front was drawn east-southeastward from the low near an IND-CVG-HTS line, to a weak low between LYH-CHO. Though initially slowed somewhat by outflow from morning/midday precip over the Ohio Valley region, the warm front should advance northeastward into parts of OH and western PA today, as the main low moves eastward to eastern OH by 00Z. At that time, the cold front should extend from the low over southern parts of IN/IL/MO, to what by then should be a stationary to warm front across northern OK into southeastern CO. ...Ohio Valley and WV... An ongoing area of precip and isolated, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms is apparent in radar animations from WI southeastward to OH, in the combined zones of large-scale ascent related to warm advection and DCVA (preceding the mid/upper perturbation). This activity and its cloud shield are expected to proceed eastward through the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Favorable boundary-layer destabilization is most probable behind that activity, as the western lobe of the mid/upper perturbation approaches and passes over the area. Clearing, insolation, theta-e advection, and mass convergence near the cold front/low should overcome remaining MLCINH by mid/late afternoon, supporting widely scattered thunderstorms. Activity should move eastward to southeastward, offering isolated severe hail and damaging gusts. Though low-level moisture still will be on the weak side, and tempered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 40s to low 50s F by that time, combining with steep low/middle-level lapse rates to enable 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The well-mixed boundary layer will support strong to marginally severe downdrafts with the most intense cells. Also, and despite somewhat veered/southwesterly surface winds, low-level and deep shear still will support some supercell potential with large hail. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes over the region. Activity should weaken east of the higher terrain this evening, as it moves over a progressively deeper, more-stable boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Ohio Valley into West Virginia this afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will remain dominated by troughing related to a synoptic-scale cyclone -- centered initially off the CA coast about 150 nm west of SFO. The cyclone will dig southeastward through the period, with its center remaining just offshore, but elongating northeastward as several vorticity lobes pivot into the northeastern quadrant of the gyre. Meanwhile, a northern-stream trough now over southern Yukon and northern BC will dig southward to the inland Pacific Northwest. This will cause a phasing of northern and southern streams into a more full-latitude, positively tilted trough by the end of this period and early day 2, from the northern Rockies across southern CA, to Pacific waters well west of northern Baja. Associated cold air aloft and marginal (but adequate) low/middle-level moisture will support isolated thunderstorm potential over much of CA and northern/western NV. Downstream, southwest flow aloft will spread across most of the Intermountain West and Rockies, with several embedded/low-amplitude perturbations -- one of which may contribute enough instability aloft to support isolated thunder over the central High Plains. East of the Rockies, largely zonal mid/upper flow is forecast, with the most convectively consequential perturbation now evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI, Lake Michigan, IL, and IN. This feature is somewhat elongated in the flow, with western and eastern components -- a general geometry that should be maintained as it shifts eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Surface analysis at 11Z revealed a frontal-wave low over northwestern IL, with cold front southwestward over western OK and the TX Panhandle. A warm front was drawn east-southeastward from the low near an IND-CVG-HTS line, to a weak low between LYH-CHO. Though initially slowed somewhat by outflow from morning/midday precip over the Ohio Valley region, the warm front should advance northeastward into parts of OH and western PA today, as the main low moves eastward to eastern OH by 00Z. At that time, the cold front should extend from the low over southern parts of IN/IL/MO, to what by then should be a stationary to warm front across northern OK into southeastern CO. ...Ohio Valley and WV... An ongoing area of precip and isolated, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms is apparent in radar animations from WI southeastward to OH, in the combined zones of large-scale ascent related to warm advection and DCVA (preceding the mid/upper perturbation). This activity and its cloud shield are expected to proceed eastward through the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Favorable boundary-layer destabilization is most probable behind that activity, as the western lobe of the mid/upper perturbation approaches and passes over the area. Clearing, insolation, theta-e advection, and mass convergence near the cold front/low should overcome remaining MLCINH by mid/late afternoon, supporting widely scattered thunderstorms. Activity should move eastward to southeastward, offering isolated severe hail and damaging gusts. Though low-level moisture still will be on the weak side, and tempered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 40s to low 50s F by that time, combining with steep low/middle-level lapse rates to enable 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The well-mixed boundary layer will support strong to marginally severe downdrafts with the most intense cells. Also, and despite somewhat veered/southwesterly surface winds, low-level and deep shear still will support some supercell potential with large hail. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes over the region. Activity should weaken east of the higher terrain this evening, as it moves over a progressively deeper, more-stable boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Ohio Valley into West Virginia this afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will remain dominated by troughing related to a synoptic-scale cyclone -- centered initially off the CA coast about 150 nm west of SFO. The cyclone will dig southeastward through the period, with its center remaining just offshore, but elongating northeastward as several vorticity lobes pivot into the northeastern quadrant of the gyre. Meanwhile, a northern-stream trough now over southern Yukon and northern BC will dig southward to the inland Pacific Northwest. This will cause a phasing of northern and southern streams into a more full-latitude, positively tilted trough by the end of this period and early day 2, from the northern Rockies across southern CA, to Pacific waters well west of northern Baja. Associated cold air aloft and marginal (but adequate) low/middle-level moisture will support isolated thunderstorm potential over much of CA and northern/western NV. Downstream, southwest flow aloft will spread across most of the Intermountain West and Rockies, with several embedded/low-amplitude perturbations -- one of which may contribute enough instability aloft to support isolated thunder over the central High Plains. East of the Rockies, largely zonal mid/upper flow is forecast, with the most convectively consequential perturbation now evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI, Lake Michigan, IL, and IN. This feature is somewhat elongated in the flow, with western and eastern components -- a general geometry that should be maintained as it shifts eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Surface analysis at 11Z revealed a frontal-wave low over northwestern IL, with cold front southwestward over western OK and the TX Panhandle. A warm front was drawn east-southeastward from the low near an IND-CVG-HTS line, to a weak low between LYH-CHO. Though initially slowed somewhat by outflow from morning/midday precip over the Ohio Valley region, the warm front should advance northeastward into parts of OH and western PA today, as the main low moves eastward to eastern OH by 00Z. At that time, the cold front should extend from the low over southern parts of IN/IL/MO, to what by then should be a stationary to warm front across northern OK into southeastern CO. ...Ohio Valley and WV... An ongoing area of precip and isolated, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms is apparent in radar animations from WI southeastward to OH, in the combined zones of large-scale ascent related to warm advection and DCVA (preceding the mid/upper perturbation). This activity and its cloud shield are expected to proceed eastward through the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Favorable boundary-layer destabilization is most probable behind that activity, as the western lobe of the mid/upper perturbation approaches and passes over the area. Clearing, insolation, theta-e advection, and mass convergence near the cold front/low should overcome remaining MLCINH by mid/late afternoon, supporting widely scattered thunderstorms. Activity should move eastward to southeastward, offering isolated severe hail and damaging gusts. Though low-level moisture still will be on the weak side, and tempered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 40s to low 50s F by that time, combining with steep low/middle-level lapse rates to enable 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The well-mixed boundary layer will support strong to marginally severe downdrafts with the most intense cells. Also, and despite somewhat veered/southwesterly surface winds, low-level and deep shear still will support some supercell potential with large hail. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes over the region. Activity should weaken east of the higher terrain this evening, as it moves over a progressively deeper, more-stable boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts may occur across parts of the Ohio Valley into West Virginia this afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will remain dominated by troughing related to a synoptic-scale cyclone -- centered initially off the CA coast about 150 nm west of SFO. The cyclone will dig southeastward through the period, with its center remaining just offshore, but elongating northeastward as several vorticity lobes pivot into the northeastern quadrant of the gyre. Meanwhile, a northern-stream trough now over southern Yukon and northern BC will dig southward to the inland Pacific Northwest. This will cause a phasing of northern and southern streams into a more full-latitude, positively tilted trough by the end of this period and early day 2, from the northern Rockies across southern CA, to Pacific waters well west of northern Baja. Associated cold air aloft and marginal (but adequate) low/middle-level moisture will support isolated thunderstorm potential over much of CA and northern/western NV. Downstream, southwest flow aloft will spread across most of the Intermountain West and Rockies, with several embedded/low-amplitude perturbations -- one of which may contribute enough instability aloft to support isolated thunder over the central High Plains. East of the Rockies, largely zonal mid/upper flow is forecast, with the most convectively consequential perturbation now evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI, Lake Michigan, IL, and IN. This feature is somewhat elongated in the flow, with western and eastern components -- a general geometry that should be maintained as it shifts eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Surface analysis at 11Z revealed a frontal-wave low over northwestern IL, with cold front southwestward over western OK and the TX Panhandle. A warm front was drawn east-southeastward from the low near an IND-CVG-HTS line, to a weak low between LYH-CHO. Though initially slowed somewhat by outflow from morning/midday precip over the Ohio Valley region, the warm front should advance northeastward into parts of OH and western PA today, as the main low moves eastward to eastern OH by 00Z. At that time, the cold front should extend from the low over southern parts of IN/IL/MO, to what by then should be a stationary to warm front across northern OK into southeastern CO. ...Ohio Valley and WV... An ongoing area of precip and isolated, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms is apparent in radar animations from WI southeastward to OH, in the combined zones of large-scale ascent related to warm advection and DCVA (preceding the mid/upper perturbation). This activity and its cloud shield are expected to proceed eastward through the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Favorable boundary-layer destabilization is most probable behind that activity, as the western lobe of the mid/upper perturbation approaches and passes over the area. Clearing, insolation, theta-e advection, and mass convergence near the cold front/low should overcome remaining MLCINH by mid/late afternoon, supporting widely scattered thunderstorms. Activity should move eastward to southeastward, offering isolated severe hail and damaging gusts. Though low-level moisture still will be on the weak side, and tempered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 40s to low 50s F by that time, combining with steep low/middle-level lapse rates to enable 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The well-mixed boundary layer will support strong to marginally severe downdrafts with the most intense cells. Also, and despite somewhat veered/southwesterly surface winds, low-level and deep shear still will support some supercell potential with large hail. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes over the region. Activity should weaken east of the higher terrain this evening, as it moves over a progressively deeper, more-stable boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/30/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S., making conditions largely unfavorable for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. On Saturday, low-level moisture advection may occur in the wake of the high pressure system across parts of the southern Plains. Although isolated thunderstorms could occur within this moist airmass on Saturday, predictability concerning any severe threat is low this far out in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S., making conditions largely unfavorable for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. On Saturday, low-level moisture advection may occur in the wake of the high pressure system across parts of the southern Plains. Although isolated thunderstorms could occur within this moist airmass on Saturday, predictability concerning any severe threat is low this far out in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S., making conditions largely unfavorable for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. On Saturday, low-level moisture advection may occur in the wake of the high pressure system across parts of the southern Plains. Although isolated thunderstorms could occur within this moist airmass on Saturday, predictability concerning any severe threat is low this far out in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S., making conditions largely unfavorable for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. On Saturday, low-level moisture advection may occur in the wake of the high pressure system across parts of the southern Plains. Although isolated thunderstorms could occur within this moist airmass on Saturday, predictability concerning any severe threat is low this far out in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S., making conditions largely unfavorable for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. On Saturday, low-level moisture advection may occur in the wake of the high pressure system across parts of the southern Plains. Although isolated thunderstorms could occur within this moist airmass on Saturday, predictability concerning any severe threat is low this far out in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S., making conditions largely unfavorable for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. On Saturday, low-level moisture advection may occur in the wake of the high pressure system across parts of the southern Plains. Although isolated thunderstorms could occur within this moist airmass on Saturday, predictability concerning any severe threat is low this far out in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S., making conditions largely unfavorable for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. On Saturday, low-level moisture advection may occur in the wake of the high pressure system across parts of the southern Plains. Although isolated thunderstorms could occur within this moist airmass on Saturday, predictability concerning any severe threat is low this far out in the period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more